England v Australia First ODI Tips: Zampa outstanding at 16/5

Thursday 19 September 12:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

England v Australia First ODI team news

England are very much in transition with their white ball teams. It's not helped by the absence of Jos Buttler, the captain. Marcus Trescothick acts as stand-in coach with Brendon McCullum not taking on the role just yet.

Harry Brook, who will lead, has played only 15 ODI and Phil Salt, considered a senior player, just 19. Ben Duckett, with just 11 ODI, would also be considered senior. They will need the guile of Liam Livingstone in the middle order.

With the ball Jofra Archer looks likely to play on a one-on, one-off basis. he could be paired for this game with Reece Topley or John Turner. Turner has been making squads for a while but, injuries a mitigating factor, has not made a debut.

Possible XI: Duckett, Salt, Brook, Livingstone, Bethell, Jacks, Smith, Carse, Rashid, Archer, Topley/Turner

World champs Australia are more settled, particularly with their bowling group. They could combine Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Adam Zampa for this one which surely justifies favourite status alone.

The returning Steve Smith adds nous and they could field an XI which compliments youth and experience. Their biggest conundrum is batting order. Who opens alongside Travis Head for example. It could be Josh Inglis or Jake Frasrer-McGurk. They could field Glenn Maxwell at No 7.

Possible XI: Head, Fraser-McGurk, Marsh, Smith, Green, Inglis, Maxwell, Abbott, Starc, Zampa, Hazlewood

England v Australia First ODI pitch report

Trent Bridge should be good for the batters. England posted 334 against Ireland, who replied with 286, last year. Five games in the 2019 World Cup saw first-innings scores of: 340-105-348-288-381. There was one score of more than 300 in the one-day domestic tournament earlier this season from two.

With England's batting in a state of flux and the Aussie bowling strong, it would make sense to put faith in only Australia to bust par lines. Their mark of 6.17 runs per over in the last 12 months suggest that taking 1.834/5 about 300 or more for them is an option. No rain is currently forecast.

England v Australia First ODI match prediction

England are rightfully considered second best on the match odds market. They are 2.588/5 with Australia 1.635/8. The two sides are in completely different spaces.

England are trying to rebuild after a poor World Cup, Australia won it and are tweaking. There is an argument that this could be a shellacking for the hosts if the toss goes against them.

On a potentially flat pitch Australia have the chance to expose a big England weakness. England have won only two of their last eight in the chase and although personnel differs, old habits die hard.

It would seem crucial that England were to bat first and make use of the pitch to put Australia under scoreboard pressure. Still, any hike in Australia's price close to choice looks like a bet given the differing experience of these two.

England v Australia First ODI player bets

Adam Zampa is our go-to man for the player bets. Zampa, who has an excellent record against England, has won the top bowler market in 12 of the last 26 matches, a 46% win rate. Sportsbook go 16/54.20 which is implied probability of 23.8%. He has 14 wickets in his last four games against England and won the market each time.

With the bat, Mitch Marsh is win rate value at 5/16.00 for top Aussie. Inglis, as he could open, is too big at 7/18.00. For England there is minimal interest aside from pointing out that Phil Salt has zero wins in his last 11 for top bat so should probably be swerved.

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