Zimbabwe v South Africa T20 Tips: Three the magic number in Harare

• Harare surface unlikely to speed up

• Raza still reliable for runs

• Hendricks a must bet at 3s

• Ngarva has win-rate on side

Zimbabwe v South Africa
Sunday 20 July, 12:00
TV: Live on TNT

Zimbabwe v South Africa T20 team news

Zimbabwe have lost two from two in the tri-series and their batting has been to blame. Twin totals of 120 and 141 against New Zealand and South Africa respectively are not going to be enough for scoreboard pressure. They have to at least get up to the low 160s as the surfaces get more worn.

They require big efforts from Brian Bennett, Sikandar Raza or Ryan Burl with the willow. Bennet showed glimpses in defeat by the Kiwis last time with 21 from 20 and signs that a platform could be built. But they quickly lost their way.

As stated before, the pace trio of Ngarva-Muzarabani-Gwandu is competitive so if their batters could just get them something to bowl at they might be in the game.

Possible Zimbabwe XI:  Madhevere, Bennett, Madande, Raza, Burl, Raza, Masakadze, Munyonga, Ngavara, Muzarabani, Gwandu

South Africa got into a dreadful muddle chasing New Zealand's 173 in their second game. After Luhuan-Dre Pretorius had given them a rollicking start they collapsed to 62 for five. 

There was brief hope of a rebuild from Dewald Brevis and George Linde but once the pair were separated they fell away with a whimper. 

They had made three changes to the XI which beat Zimbabwe in the opener.  Andile Simelane, Nqa Peter and Nandre Burger came out for Gerald Coetzee, Senuran Muthusamy and Kwena Maphaka. 

Probable SA XI:  Pretorius, Hendricks, Hermann, Muthusamy, van der Dussen, Brevis, Linde, Bosch, Coetzee, Ngidi, Maphaka

Zimbabwe v South Africa T20 pitch report

The average run rate in the last 13 T20 internationals  that have produced a result at Harare is just 7.7. But both New Zealand South Africa have the nous to get up past that against the hosts. Indeed, their efforts against Zimbabwe so far suggest that late 170 should be the bear minimum for the Saffers they were to bat first. On Betfair Exchange we could get the opportunity to go long of the par line at around the late 160s.

For sixes the line has come down to 10.5 overs/unders and total fours is at 25.5. Both markets appear to be toss dependant on South Africa batting first. Respectively unders at those lines have lost three times and six.

Zimbabwe v South Africa T20 match prediction

Zimbabwe are 5.609/2 with South Africa 1.201/5. When we've been getting 6.205/1 about the hosts it is pretty easy to dismiss the notion that they might be worth a small stake to cause an upset.

Indeed, their best chance could come in their final game against New Zealand on Thursday. More traffic has gone through the surface and it it could well be a dead rubber for the Kiwis if they beat South Africa on Tuesday.

At some stage we may have to consider the tie trade as value from those high prices at 50.049/1 but, again, that could be one for the latter encounters. Any hope of Zimbabwe getting those match odds down seem to rest on them bowling first and utilising new-ball skill.

Zimbabwe v New Zealand T20 player bets

There are three to follow here. We keep faith with Raza for top Zimbabwe bat. His two-year win rate dropped to 35% after a blank but we have no fear that there is much to beat. Sportsbook's 3/14.00 is too big. We also follow Ngarva with the ball. He also drew a blank on top wicket-taker last time but that's okay. He has been pushed out to 10/34.33 and for a man with a winning record of 25% that's too big.

For South Africa, it's Reeza time. Hendricks is one of the toughest to predict in this format but a win rate of 31% suggests we can't risk missing out. He does often need time to bed in to a series but hopefully he can get up to speed quickly. Sportsbook offer 3/14.00.

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