Zimbabwe v New Zealand T20 Tips: Back Zim pair at 7/2

• Harare surface won't get any quicker

• Keep tie trade in mind

• Raza can deliver for Zimbabwe at 7/24.50

• Both teams may shuffle XIs

Zimbabwe v New Zealand
Thursday 24 July, 12:00
TV: Live on TNT

Zimbabwe v New Zealand T20 team news

Zimbabwe were knocked out of their own tournament with defeat by South Africa last time out so this is a dead rubber. Whether they use this an opportunity to look at other players remains to be seen.

Top-order batter Dion Mayers and keeper Tafadzwa Tsiga could get a game. Left-arm quick Newman Nyamhuri might also be an option. Given the slow nature of the surface it would be interesting to see leggie Vincent Masekesa get a run out. Blessing Muzarabani missed the loss to the Saffers and it could be Zimbabwe give Richard Ngarava a rest.

Possible Zimbabwe XI:  Madhevere, Bennett, Madande, Raza, Burl, Raza, Masakadze, Munyonga, Mapossa/Ngarava, Muzarabani, Gwandu

New Zealand have played three and won three and they seem well-suited to the conditions in Harare. With the likes of Devon Conway, Daryl Mitchell and Rachin Ravindra  at the top of ther order they have nous in finding the gaps on a slow wicket. With the ball Mitch Santner, Michael Bracewell and Zach Foulkes can take pace off.

They have been shuffling their pack. Bevon Jacobs and Tim Robnson, who won them the opener against South Africa, are on the sidelines. Matt Henry has also been rested. It could be that the trio come back in for Saturday's final.

Probable NZ XI:  Seifert, Conway, Ravindra, Chapman, Mitchell, Bracewell, Foulkes, Santner, Milne, Duffy, O'Rourke

Zimbabwe v New Zealand T20 pitch report

The Harare pitch continues to be slow and low and we don't expect that to change any time soon. First-innings scores of 141-173-120-144-130 are consistent. New Zealand produced the outlier and they are likely to target something similar again. They will be well aware, though, that if they bat first 160 would do it. 

The markets are wise to the nature of the surface. Sportsbook offer under 9.5 sixes at even money for example. We would expect a total runs line of around mid-150s for the Kiwis. For the Zims they will do well to post 140 and any sort of partnership in running - as we saw against South Africa - is the time to short on the Betfair Exchange par line.

Zimbabwe v New Zealand T20 match prediction

Zimbabwe are 5.905/1 with the Kiwis 1.192/11. These are the sort of odds that one would expect. The natural reaction is to wonder about a trade at those odds on the outsiders but there are plenty of ifs in play, including: if New Zealand bat first and Zimbabwe can restrict them to 140; if Zimbabwe can get an early partnership going in the chase; if New Zealand are slightly below par because of a final at the weekend.

An alternative is the tie trade. It could be that when New Zealand meet South Africa in the last match two more evenly matched sides could make the market a better play. But it is worth being aware that on wickets such as this the gulf can be reduced. If this was to go to the last over, prices of 50.049/1 will have completely collapsed.

Zimbabwe v New Zealand T20 player bets

Raza started the series with a 37.5% win rate and, with one win so far, it is worth retaining faith in him. He has been pushed out by the oddsmakers too, from 3/14.00 to 7/24.50.

Wellinton Masakadza is one who catches the eye at 35s considering we have to be aware that 30-odd can win this market. The 9/25.50 about Mark Chapman for the Kiwis is also a fancy.

Another win-rate we have to keep going with is Ngarava. He is their most potent wicket-taker on form and should be closer to joint-fav status instead of 7/24.50. Money back if he doesn't play.  

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