West Indies v Bangladesh Third ODI Tips: Can Windies finally adjust?

Ed Hawkins
15 July 2022
2:30 min read

Hope is a decent bet for top bat

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Ed Hawkins previews the final game of the series from Providence on Saturday with Bangladesh 2-0 up...

"We're expecting a lift for Shai Hope's odds after two blanks. We could well get 3/1 from Sportsbook although we're still happy to take the more likely 11/4"

(2pts) Back Shai Hope top WI bat from 3.7511/4

West Indies v Bangladesh
Saturday 16 July, 14:30
TV: live on BT Sport

Windies horror show

West Indies' defeat by Bangladesh in the first match was a stinker of a performance in game one. There are few derogatory words left to describe their effort in game two - a thumping nine-wicket loss.

Batting first they could muster only 108. Collapses happen, for sure, but there was a complete absence of intent from the top order.

One would expect Keacy Carty to be given a try instead of Brandon King or Shamarh Brooks as a result. King was a surprising pick given his consistent failings. Don't be surprised to see Romario Shephered or Akeal Hosein promoted up the order, either.

With the ball West Indies brought back Alzarri Joseph but one of their five bowlers used was Nic Pooran. That also made little sense with Romario Shepherd and Kyle Mayers available.

Easy for Bangladesh

It was an easy day's work for Bangladesh. They must have wished for a similar surface to shine on in the Test series.

Spinners won it again for them. Nasum Ahmed and Mehidy Hasan Miraz bowed 18 overs between them for seven wickets and just 48 runs. Nasum picked up the man of the match award for one fewer wicket than his colleague and an economy rate of 1.9.

In the 'chase' Tamim Iqbal wasted little time. His fifty came off 62 balls. It wrapped the series impressively for a side without Mushfiqur Rahim and Shakib-al-Hasan.

Easy for Bangladesh

As stated before game two, we are happy to be going short on the West Indies par runs line. if they bat first. On the innings runs market, which gives punters the opportunity to back or lay at over/under in increments of 10, there is value in the 'extremes'. We use quotation marks because West Indies' efforts so far are about normal for them rather than anything outlandish. So make a note of cheap lays at under 170, 180 and 190.

If Bangladesh were to bat first for the first time in the series, their run rate in their two chases are instructive. They went at 4.7 in game one and 5.4 in game two. The latter, in a low chase of 109, should be taken with a pinch of salt because of the absence of pressure.

It is reasonable to reckon that Bangladesh could be capable of least 4.8 an over. That would probably put them slightly under the par runs line. Still, on the first-innings runs market it may be possible to back them to go over 240 at around 2.1011/10. Bet first-innings runs line here.

Bang should be jollies

West Indies are 1.814/5 with Bangladesh 2.186/5. We have consistently said that the odds have been wrong in this series and after two comfortable wins for Bangladesh it is hard to change tack. Bet match odds markets here.

What we do need to be aware of, however, is Bangladesh's motivation. They have the series won and a below-strength team could be forgiven for taking their eye off the ball.

It is worth repeating that their head-to-head record now reads 13 wins in 15. It is quite extraordinary in the context of the odds. At the very least we expect the odds to flip and Bangladesh to trade as favourites with the home time failing to adjust to the spin challenge.

Tops value

We're expecting a lift for Shai Hope's odds after two blanks. We could well get 3/1 from Sportsbook although we're still happy to take the more likely 11/4.

Keep an eye on prices for Akeal and Shepherd as discussed above. As has been seen, a low score is enough ti win this market. We're in business from 25s for each.

For Bangladesh an honorable mention to Afif Hosein, particularly if 9/1 is available. Tamim won from a boosted 4/1 with Sportsbook but it's unlikely that he'll be as big again.

For man of the match, Mehidy and Nasum will be popular. It might be worth keeping Akeal on side here, too. Check the Sportsbook markets here.

2022: -11.15

2021: +29.41pts

2020: +5.91pts

2019: +37.25pts

2018: +23.53pts

2017: +12pts

2016: +18.1pts

2015: +38pts

2014: +31.5pts

2013: +25pts