The Hundred Tips Matches Three and Four: Go big Willey style at 11/1

• Superchargers an unconvincing bet at odds-on

• Headingley pitch could be full of runs

• Smith a must bet at 16/5

• Phoenix look strong with bat and ball

• Duckett and Willey the men to follow

• Don't miss The Hundred team guide HERE

Northern Superchargers v Welsh Fire
Thursday 7 August, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Northern Superchargers v Welsh Fire The Hundred tips

Northern Superchargers have already made two changes to their squad before a ball has been bowled. Pakistan duo Mohammad Amir and Imad Wasim have signed and both could go straight into the side for their opener against a Fire team desperately hoping they have finally found a winning formula.

Amir replaces Ben Dwarshuis for the full season after the Australia pacer was included in white-ball squads for series against South Africa. Imad steps in for Mitch Santner who is away with New Zealand in Zimbabwe and will miss two matches.

Whether Superchargers have enough bowling stock will most likely decide their season. The Headingley pitch is historically the best to bat on in the tournament and if the sun is out, batters should dominate. 

The hosts should have no issue scoring runs with the likes of Zak Crawley and Harry Brook available for the duration but perhaps only Adil Rashid is seen as a reliable option with the ball. How they cope when the opposition start to throw the bat will be key. For that reason they look far too short at 1.738/11 on the Betfair Exchange.

Fire's strategy to improve on a record of never having qualified for the final stages is simple: sign one of the greatest batters of all time. Steven Smith isn't a T20 blockbuster at international level but in franchise leagues, such as the Bash, he has found runscoring ridiculously easy. In three of his last four matches in BBL he scored a hundred.

Smith is our first port of call for a wager. We would expect him to be winning top bat at this level very close to the 40% mark. The 16/54.20 that he tops is value and it is quite surprising that Jonny Bairstow is rated as more likely to win. Perhaps Sportsbook are not convinced that he will open the batting.

If Smith doesn't open then that is a huge red glag about Fire's tactical awareness. If you sign one of the best, you give him the best opportunity to show it, particularly in this truncated format. It would really be remarkably stupid to bat him anywhere else regardless if the likes of Steve Eskinazi have their noses put out of joint. We also note the 11/26.50 that Smith wins the top match bat market. Betting him in every game this summer is likely to pay off. 

As for other runs bets, a flat and true Leeds wicket means that both teams to score markets catch the eye. The 5/61.84 that both reach 150 might be a gimme if the rain and clouds stay away. It's won five in 11 and although that doesn't scream rick, neither bowling side may have the nous to keep scores down. On the exchange we may be able to get long of first-innings runs at the 157.5 mark. 

Birmingham Phoenix v Trent Rockets The Hundred Tips

Birmingham Phoenix v Trent Rockets
Friday 8 August, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Birmingham Phoenix are these pages' pick for glory with a squad which could be brilliant up front with bat and ball. Their title bid may stand or fall on what they do in the middle. But all-rounders like Liam Livingstone, Jacob Bethell and Dan Mousley can do the lot so it's fair to reckon they are underrated.

But let's focus on that top and tail if you will. England thruster Ben Duckett is available for the whole shebang and he will be paired by the aggressive Will Smeed or Aneruin Donald in all probability. Donald should probably get the nod given his six-hitting prowess in the Blast.

Duckett is a cut above this level and his win rate at 43% means we would be foolish to try and be cute as to when and where he delivers. Bet him at 23/103.30. He was just pipped for the win in the corresponding fixture last season when he hit 30 off 16 balls.

With the ball a new cherry attack of Adam Milne, Tim Southee and Trent Boult is still savvy enough to compete at a higher level than this. Boult is a master at striking early and Rockets could be one to take on in the highest opening partnership market as a result. Phoenix are 5/61.84. That early dominance may be preferrable to skinny match odds prices. 

For the Rockets, Joe Root comes into the XI and he gets a 3/14.00 quote for top bat. That takes out a hefty chunk and means that David Willey is looking toppy at 11s. The Rockets skipper has opened this summer in the Blast and is in rare form. There's nothing wrong with him pulling rank and batting where he wants. Anywhere outside the top four would be a surprise. 

Now read the best cricket Tips here!