T20 World Cup First-round Tips: Zimbabwe primed for shock

• Zimbabwe or Ireland could stun Windies
• Jason Holder a 33/1 top bowler fancy
• Sri Lanka 3/1 for semi-final berth

World T20 Qualifiers
Matches start from Sunday 16 October
TV: Live on BT Sports

How it works

Two groups of four battle it out from Sunday to make the Super 12 round where two teams from each section will join the 'big boys'. The hopefuls are split into Group A and B.

Group A: Sri Lanka, Namibia, Netherlands, UAE
Group B: West Indies, Scorland, Ireland, Zimbabwe

The winner of Group A and runner-up in Group B will progress to Group 1 of the Super 12s which also includes Afghanistan, Australia, England and New Zealand. The winner of Group B and runner-up in Group A progress to Group 2 which includes Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and South Africa. The top two from the Super 12 groups make the semi-finals.

How the first-round teams stack up

By filtering data over the last 12 months by team for cumulative batting strike rate and bowling economy it is possible to gauge potential strengths and weaknesses. The rankings come with caveats, however, because they have faced differing quality of opposition.

The UAE's numbers should be approached with caution because they have played teams like Germany and Bahrain. West Indies, by contrast, have faced Super 12 sides. And beaten them, notably that series win over England.

SR/bowling economy rank last 12 months by first-round teams
UAE 1/4
Ireland 2/5
WI 3/7
Zimbabwe 4/2
SL 5/6
Neth 6/1
Nam 7/3
Scotland 8/8

How to play Group A

Sri Lanka have emerged as a decent T20 side in recent months. Their Asia Cup win saw them trump the famed UAE toss bias in the final against Pakistan. They are head and shoudlers above the rest. Sportsbook go 1/12 they win the group, 3/1 they reach the semis and 6/1 they reach the final.

So who joins them? It's a bit of a bun fight. Netherlands have good grounding in their bowling economy and they have a clutch of experience players who might make the difference in tight contests.

New skip Scott Edwards is a reliable top-bat wager from 9/2 while the likes of Colin Ackermann, Tom Cooper, Fred Klaasen, Max O'Dowd and Roelof van der Merwe complete a competitive unit. That strength in depth should be enough to see of Namibia who are reliant on David Wiese.

To win group: 1/12 Sri Lanka, 10/1 Namibia, 16/1 Netherlands, 17/1 UAE

How to play Group B

Stand by. The winner of Group B will reckon they have a great chance of causing an upset and making the last four. That's because of the Asian sub-continent presence (Bangaldesh, India and Pakistan) in the Super 12 group which they progress to.

It is not unreasonable to reckon that fanst and bouncy wickets are unlikely to suit their style. So Zimbabwe at 100/1 to reach the semis with Sportsbook has appeal.

Their form has been decent in the last 12 months and it was only a few weeks ago that they beat Australia in Australia. Sikandar Raza, the fearsome hitter, could well be a star of the tournament and their batting is far from shabby.

Backing them to win the group is probably more sensible at 12/1 because West Indies look hugely vulnerable here.

They have been chaotic in build-up with Shimron Hetmyer missing his flight and Nic Pooran is a deeply unimpressive leader. Laying them at 1.384/11 on the Exchange to win the group is a shrewd move.

It is far more fun, however, to dutch Zimbabwe and Ireland. The Irish, like the Netherlands, have a group of solid performers. They just need a bit of stardust from Harry tector or Paul Stirling. Pacers Josh Little and Mark Adair have quality, too.

Scotland are in strife off the field and their disastrous bat and ball stats should not be ignored.

To win the group: 1/8 West Indies, 10 Ireland, 12/1 Scotland, Zimbabwe

Players to follow

Runs and wickets in the first round count in the top batsman and top bowler outright markets. That means these players from teams who qualify get three more matches to impress than a performer in a Super 12 team which exits at the first hurdle.

That explains why Sri Lanka's Pathnum Nissanka and Wanindu Hasaranga, last year's WC top wicket-taker, are 14/1 and 8/1 jolly respectively.

West Indies players who cath the eye are Jason Holder for top tournament bowler at 33s. He should bowl at the death which is crucial in this market. he's also underrated at 5/1 for top West Indies bowler.

Evin Lewis has the talent to win on both the outright and West Indies market for runs at 40s and 7s recpectively. But will he be afforded the opportunity. Ireland's Josh Little is a potential top bowler pick at a massive 100/1