South Africa v Zimbabwe T20 World Cup Tips: Zims rely on Raza

• Do Saffers drop captain in Hobart?
• Raza 12/1 for man of match
• Ngiid 4/1 for top bowler

South Africa v Zimbabwe
Monday 24 October, 09:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Can South Africa get their XI right? If so, they have a great chance of going deep in this tournament. The selection issue is whether they drop skip Temba Bavuma, who has been awful and, thankfully, carrying a niggle, for Reeza Hendricks.

It will be an early signs as to whether they are being too cautious or sticking with new-found aggression. Likewise Lungi Ngidi, an out-and-out wicket-taker, pipping Anrich Nortje

Possible XI: De Kock, Hendricks, Rossouw, Markram, Miller, Stubbs, Parnell, Maharaj, Rabada, Nortje, Shamsi

Zimbabwe arguably should have swept the board in the first-round. They were in charge against West Indies at a key stage. But they qualified easily in the end, beating Scotland to take top spot.

In Siknadar Raza they have a plyer of the tournament candidate. The 100/1 before a ball was bowled that they reached the semi-finals now looks a very big price.

Probable XI: Chakabva, Ervine, Madhevere, Williams, Raza, Shumba, Burl, Jongwe, Ngarava, Chatara, Muzarabani

Pitch report

In the last 21 matches at the venue there have been 15 scores of 160 or more. As a result only five of those have been won by the side batting second. Ireland struggled to 128 against Sri Lanka. Despite the record for runs, we do have fears that Zimbabwe's batting might not be strong enough against a varied and highly-skilled attack. There may be cheap lays for Zimbabwe under 120 and 130.

How to play

South Africa are 1.141/7 with Zimbabwe 8.07/1. It's a very skinny price about South Africa, particularly with a toss bias in action and if they play their captain.

The best advice is to trade Zimbabwe. Raza, who bats and bowls in the top echelon, can take a bite out of that price on his won.

Tops value

Raza is 9/2 for top Zimbabwe bat with Sportsbook and 12s for another man of the match gong. Quinton De Kock is boosted to 11/4 for top Saffer. Craig Ervine, who opened last time, is boosted to 4s for top Zimbabwe bat. With the ball, we don't expect Lungi Ngidi to play but on strike rate the 4/1 about him taking most South Africa wickets is a bet. He's their most dangerous bowler.