South Africa v England Third ODI Tips: Big runs expected again

Ed Hawkins
31 January 2023
2:30 min read

Quinton de Kock could miss out

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Ed Hawkins previews a dead rubber from Kimberley on Wednesday but finds some strong bet options for Betfair...

South Africa v England
Wednesday 1 February, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

South Africa aced a monumentalc hase of 343 in game two to seal the series with a game to spare. They now have the luxury of playing with freedom, or even testing bench strength.

Anrich Nortje could sit this one out. South Africa have been rottating their fast bowlers so Sisanda Magal might return. With the bat Janne Malan or Reeza Hendricks could replace Quinton de Kock who has an injured hand.

Possible XI: Hendricks/Malan, Bavuma, Van der Dussen, Markram, Klaasen, Miller, Jansen, Parnell, Magala, Shamsi, Ngidi

England have now lost five in a row ODI for the first time since 2011. Do they want to change up to try to kickstart some form?

Phil Salt is waiting for a chance as opener but it's tough to drop Dawid Malan or Jason Roy. One possible move is to drop Ben Duckett and move Malan to No 3. Jofra Archer might return for Olly Stone and Reece Topley may be

Possible XI: Roy, Salt, Malan, Brook, Buttler, Moeen, S Curran, Woakes, Archer, Rashid, Topley

Pitch report

Eleven of the 14 matches played at Kimberley have been won by the chaser. Three of the four games under lights have been won by the chaser.

This data is taken with a pinch of salt as the last ODI played at the venue was in 2018 when Zimbabwe were rolled for 118. The run rate has been okay, though, and 280 batting first looks to be a minimum.

The par line is here. It's early days but it looks as though going over in the late 280s may well be an option. The 5/1 that both teams score 300 with Sportsbook is an option, likewise the 9/5 that both make 275.

How to play

South Africa remain outsiders despite all evidence to the contrary. They are 2.206/5 with England 1.804/5.

If the toss goes South Africa's way and they chse they will be a warm order. But will they be 2.206/5 going after a total of 300 or more? No, they'll be bigger so it could pay to wait until the break. There is little faith that England's profligacy in the field stops.

Back S Curran top England bowler

7/2

Tops value

We'll keep our fingers crossed that Jannie Malan gets a game. At 4/1 for top SA bat it is a comfortable wager on win rate. For England we're keen on another Malan, Dawid.

He is 3/1 favourite and has looked in decent nick. Jos Buttler has been boosted to 5/1. Sam Curran remains big at 7/2 considering he has death duty and the jolly, Archer, may not play.

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