Pakistan v West Indies Third ODI Tips: Team changes provide value

Ed Hawkins
11 June 2022

Hope is 3/1 for top Windies bat

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Ed Hawkins previews the final game of the series with the players markets providing the best chance of a value wager in Multan on Sunday...

"We still rate Mohammad Rizwan a better chance than 5/1 batting at No 4, by the way. He's just been getting to the crease with much of the work done"

(0.5pts) Back Mohammad Rizwan top Pakistan bat 6.005/1

Pakistan v West Indies
Sunday 12 June, 12:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

Bench players could get a game

Pakistan have an unassailable lead in the three-match series so it could be worthwhile bringing some players off the bench.

First in line is probably opener Abdullah Shafique considering Fakhar Zaman has had a quiet time. There's also a possibility Mohammad Rizwan could be asked to open.

The biggest changes could be with the ball. Is there any point in getting Shaheen Afridi to do another workout? Shahnawaz Dahani stands by. Zahid Mahmood is also worthy of a game and could replace Haris Rauf.

Mohammad Nawaz won Pakistan game two with four wickets. He also took home the match gong. Iftikhar Ahmed's occasional spin may suddenly be more attractive as a result.

Possible XI: Shafique, Imam, Babar, Rizwan, Khushdil, Haris, Nawaz, Shadab, Wasim, Mahmood, Dahani

Windies wilting

West Indies would have reckoned they were bang in the game at the halfway point of the second match. They had bowled well to restrict Pakistan to 275.

But their batting folded after a strong start through Shamarh Brooks and Kyle Mayers. The middle order did not perform and they may have to shuffle the pack.

Brandon King, as we have said previously, does not look a natural No 5 and after a duck he could lose his
spot. That would free up Rovman Powell to move a place higher.

The beneficiaries could be Keemo Paul, who was added to the squad after game one. His spin could be useful after Hayden Walsh went round the park. And Nkrumah Bonner might get a chance in the middle order.

Possible XI: Hope, Mayers, Brooks, Pooran, Powell, Bonner, Shepherd, Hosein, Paul, Joseph, Seales

Pitch report

This is the third game at Multan and there are signs that the square is looking a little tired. It was perhaps no coincidence that both Nawaz and Windies spinner Akeal Hosein were getting grip and turn which was not evident previously.

Although we are wary of the oppressive heat, it may be pay to start going low on innings runs, particularly if West Indies bat first. They're beginning to look a little ragged and with series over they may have checked out upstairs.

There should be big numbers available on the innings runsto go under 200 and 190.
Sportsbook are offering Pakistan's runs over and under. It is, of course, toss dependant. There's not much fun playing a market which has under 290.5 at 8/11 and over the same at 10/11. Bet the Sportsbook markets here

Slim trade chance

Pakistan are no better than 1.331/3 with West Indies 3.7011/4. Ordinarily with such a gulf between two established teams, it's relatively easy to make a case for the outsider. Not this time, though.

Faith in West Indies has been sorely tested. They failed to defend 305 in the first game (when they actually should have posted more like 320) and then when in the hunt batting second, they flopped.

We could argue that if West Indies bat first and can post 300 again, we have a trade on our hands. The reality, however, is that Pakistan are unlikely to push 1.608/13 even going after 300-odd. Bet the match odds here

Tops value

Much of the tops value rests with second guessing line-ups. For example, Shafique could well be the bet at 4s. If he plays, he opens. If he doesn't you get your money back. We still rate Mohammad Rizwan a better chance than 5/1 batting at No 4, by the way. He's just been getting to the crease with much of the work done.

Similarly Dahani and Mahmood at 7/2 and 4/1 respectively if we reckon Afridi and Rauf are given a rest (the front two in the betting). We already know that Hasan Ali, third favourite, is out of favour and unlikely to feature.

Shai Hope has been boosted to 3/1 by Sportsbook for top West Indies bat. Hosein, who we high-lighted at 100/1 in game one, is now down to 33s. It's hard not to reckon the value has gone. Bet the Sportsbook markets here