Pakistan v South Africa First Test Tips: Tourists could face trial by spin

• Focus is on Lahore pitch

• Pakistan players undercooked
• South Africa without key men
• Batting first could be crucial

• Nauman Ali to have big say

Pakistan v South Africa
Sunday 12 October, 06.00
TV: Live on Willow

Pakistan v South Africa First Test team news

Pakistan will no doubt want to make this a trial by spin for South Africa. Just how much the Lahore surface will turn will be clear when they name their XI. Last time at home against West Indies they named only one pacer - Shaheen Shah Afridi. They could deploy the same method.

Sajid Khan, Nauman Ali and Abrara Ahmed are the three frontline spinners. Salman Agha could also be used. Salman may be sacrificed, though, for fast-bowling support for Afridi in the shape of all-rounder Aamer Jamal.

In a squad of 18 Pakistan named no fewer than eight spin-bowling options. That includes 38-year-old all-rounder Asif Ali. As usual, Babar Azam is the great hope for the home side with the bat, ably supported by the excellent Saud Shakeel.

Possible Pakistan XI: Shafique, Imam, Masood, Babar, Shakeel, Rizwan, Salman, Sajid, Afridi, Noman, Abrar

South Africa begin the defence of their WTC crown without two key players. Skip Temba Bavuma is out with a calf injury while Keshav Maharaj, their best spinner, is not due to arrive until the second Test.

The visitors have been trying to prepare by training on specially tuned-up turning tracks in Durban. Whether they are able to replicate Lahore remains to be seen. It would be a surprise if they didn't pick three spin options with Simon Harmer leading Pren Subrayen and Senuran Muthusamy.  

Possible SA XI: Markram, Rickleton, Mulder, Stubbs, Bedingham, Verreynne, Jansen, Muthusamy, Subrayen, Rabada, Harmer

Pakistan v South Africa First Test pitch report

It is true that the raging turners Pakistan have produced in recent home series have not been in Lahore. There hasn't been a Test there since 2022 when Australia pumped the hosts on a quick pitch after posting 391 in the first. It didn't really spin big until Nathan Lyon's took five wickets in the fourth. 

So do Pakistan have short, or long memories? Their come-from-behind 2-1 win against England was achieved on absolute ragers and the methods they used to get the pitches they wanted (heaters, fans and windbreakers) made clear their intentions. It worked. 

But it doesn't appear the same methods have been used. Early videos of the track suggest a straw-coloured pitch and home coach Azhar Mahmood has said that the surface will provide moderate turn.

The gamble is betting that there is more than that. To that end we could be looking at extreme unders on first-innings runs for the tourists. Unders 170, 160 and 150 should be very cheap lays. 

Of course the sensible course of action is to wait. if the pitch does spin it will do so more later on so keeping the powder dry for those types of lays in the third innings might be the wisest option.

Pakistan v South Africa First Test match prediction

Pakistan are 1.991/1, South Africa 2.568/5 and the draw 8.4015/2. There's not much between the two in terms of price for this one, probably because there are concerns about the preparation from both outfits.

Pakistan's players have barely played any red-ball cricket. Babar, for example, hasn't played first-class cricket since the last Test, which was in January. Mohammad Rizwan and Saud Shakeel have played a game each. Rizwan's was last week domestically when he notched a ton while Shakeel's was in March.

South Africa may reckon they have worked hard back home but there can be no comparison with boots on the ground and overs in the legs. It is surely a major negative that Messrs Bavuma and Maharaj are absent.

So what can drive a wedge between the two? The toss perhaps. Bat first and bat big-ish and that could be the game on an increasingly wearing surface. A score of 300-odd could be very useful indeed.

Pakistan v South Africa First Test player bets

We are keen to be with Pakistan spinner Nauman Ali. There's a significant edge for his style (SLA) against South Africa in the last two years. If one filters the top spin wicket-takers against them all of the top six are SLA. The ball turning away from the right-hander can be lethal and in our predicted line-up, South Africa have five in the top six. Sportsbook's boosted 12/113.00 for man of the match has most appeal because it keeps on side second-innings carnage. He is 21/103.10 for top first-innings bowler. He has three in the last six at home. 

If we're right about right-handers being an issue for South Africa (Abrar Ahmed will also spin the ball away), then Ryan Rickleton and Marco Jansen are potentials for top bat in the first dig at 4/15.00 and 18/119.00. 

Babar has an even money record for top bat for Pakistan in the first dig in the last ten Tests at home. Sportsbook make him a 4/15.00 chance. The lack of game time is a problem, though. 

Now watch - Stick To Cricket with England legends and special guests