Pakistan v New Zealand Fourth ODI Tips: Babar lined up for score

• Babar a top match bat bet

• Pakistan could rest players

• Pitch is reliably flat

Pakistan v New Zealand
Friday 5 April, 11:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Pakistan have an unassailable 3-0 lead. It gives them the opportunity to try out new combinations. Shan Masood could come into the middle order instead of Abdullah Shafique. The opening pair of Fakhar Zaman and Imam-ul-Haq is unmoved.

Leggie Usama Mir or Iftikhar Ahmed could replace Mohammad Nawaz while one from Shaheen Afridi and Naseem Shah is likely to sit out for Ihsanullah.

Possible XI: Fakhar, Imam, Babar, Masood, Rizwan, Agha, Iftikhar, Shadab, Wasim, Afridi, Ihsanullah

New Zealand put up a decent fight in game three. Set 288 to win they were going well at 113 for one. Alast they fell away before a late cameo from Cole McConchie gave them hope.

Matt Henry and Adam Milne had combined well with new ball and old to take fice between them. It's a strong pairing. Will Young, Tom Blundell and Tom Latham all got solid starts with the bat but couldn't go on.

The balance is still not quite right with only five bowlers. Adding Rachin Ravindra instead of Henry Nicholls would give them a sixth option. Or they could utilise Daryl Mitchell.

Probable XI: Blundell, Young, Mitchell, Latham, Chapman, Nicholls, McConchie, Milne, Shipley, Sodhi, Henry

Pitch report

In six ODI at Karachi National Stadium since 2019 there have been four scores of more than 280 and one of more than 300. Pakistan's 287 is likely to inform the par line. Pakistan for 300 or more could be worth a gamble with concerns about the limited variation in the Kiwi attack.

How to play

Pakistan are in the 1.42/5 region with New Zealand touching 3.02/1. This is a trading game. We expect whoever bats first to be shorter at the break.

In an ideal world that would be New Zealand because there's more room for manouevere in their price. A couple of early wickets defending is a good opportunity to trade.

Alternatively, if Pakistan bat second we would back them to get up to 330-odd. Going after around 280-290 should still bump up their price to an acceptable level.

Tops value

Babar Azam has been boosted to 11/2 for top match bat by Sportsbook. That could well be worth a follow. Babar has a hit rate of 17.7% over his career on the market and SPortsbook are rating him at 15.4%

Tom Blundell has been upped to 4/1 for top Kiwi. Other prices of note are the 10/3 that Haris Rauf takes most Pakistan wickets. He may not play but he has been terrific in the two games he has played with six wickets.