New Zealand v Sri Lanka Third ODI Tips: Risk the Lankans batting first

• Sri Lanka can be competitive this time

• Nicholls sticks out at 9/2

• Rajitha a possible at 70s

New Zealand v Sri Lanka
Friday 31 March, 02:00
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

New Zealand have allowed Finn Allen and Glenn Phillips to depart early for the IPL so they have to reshuffle. We expect Henry Nicholls and Mark Chapman to be the beneficiaries.

Nicholls should open with Chad Bowes with the hard-hitting Chapman slotting in at No 6. Henry Shipley, who game one on his own before the washout in Christchurch, continues at No 8.

Matt Henry, whose workload has been heavy, probably continues considering game two was abandoned.

Probable XI: Henry, Bowes, Young, Mitchell, Latham, Chapman, Ravindra, Shipley, Henry, Sodhi, Tickner

Sri Lanka need a win to automatically qualify for the World Cup. But just becuse there is an equation like that in play it shouldn't mean they are trying harder.

They were stuffed in the first match, being bowled out for just 76. As a result Dilshan Madushanka, the pacer who was expensive, could miss out for Dhananjaya de Silva. Dhananjaya strengthens the batting and provides a spin option.

Probable XI: Nissanka, N Fernando, Kusal, Asalanka, Mathews, Shanaka, Dhananjaya, Hasaranga, Karunaratne, Rajitha, Lahiru

Pitch report

There have been four completed ODI at Seddon Park, Hamilton in the last five years. The first-innings scores (1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second, most recent first) read: 333-1/264-1/347-2/92-2.

It's a tricky surface to call because the two most recent totals were by the hosts against associate side the Netherlands. The 92 all out was by India in 2019 and then the very next game they made 347. The innings runs market is here. No rain is forecast at the moment.

How to play

New Zealand are as short as 1.412/5. Sri Lanka are 3.2011/5. We had high hopes for Sri Lanka in this series given the individual talent at their disposal but confidence has been hit by their batting horror show in the first match.

We must try to keep faith. Their bowlers did well to restrict the Kiwis in the first match and a weaker home line-up probably don't justify short odds.

We know that New Zealand's strength is batting second and we are slightly nervous that a flat wicket has Sri Lanka chasing their tails batting first, so we'll look to get with the visitors for an in-out trade if they bat first.

The ability is there to do well, especiall with Wanindu Hasaranga and Rajitha capable at Nos 9 and 10.

Tops value

Nicholls is probably a value call on bat order versus price. He comes in to open so should be a smidge shorter than 9/2. He has a fifty in that whopping chase against India. Will Young has a century last time out against the Dutch so we note the 4/1.

It could be that we're wrong to put faith in Sri Lanka to improve with the bat. If so Rajitha could provide a chunky winner at 70/1 top Sri Lanka bat. Angleo Mathews is 3/1 favourite but has been boosted to 7/2.

Hasaranga is 12/5 for top Sri Lanka bowler but look out for Chamika Karunaratne at 4/1.