New Zealand v South Africa T20 tips: Take this 100/1 top-bat gamble in final dress rehersal

• South Africa underrated in Harare

• Pitch is slow and low

• Score of 160 targeted batting first

• New Zealanders lose Phillips

• Coetzee looks a bet for long-shot backers at 100/1

New Zealand v South Africa
Tuesday 22 July, 12:00
TV: Live on TNT

New Zealand v South Africa T20 team news

New Zealand have lost Glenn Phillips to injury. The all-rounder turned up with a hamstring injury from the Major League and has gone home with no hope of improvement in time to play a role.

Mark Chapman, Michael Bracewell and Adam Milne came into the XI for the Kiwis' second game of the tournament on Friday against Zimbabwe, replacing Tim Robinson, Mitchell Hay and Jimmy Neesham. It was harsh on Robinson who won them the opener against South Africa and there were no reports of an injury.

Possible NZ XI:  Conway, Seifert, Ravindra, Mitchell, Chapman, Jacobs, Bracewell,  Santner, Sodhi, Henry, Milne

South Africa knocked out Zimbabwe on Sunday with a routine success. There were minor wobbles in the middle part of Zimbabwe's effort to post a total and then the loss of two quick wickets at the start of the chase but they would have felt in control.

Rassie van der Dussen and Rubin Hermann both hit fifties as they got after 145 with16 balls to spare. Reeza Hendricks and Luhan-dre Pretorius had fallen cheaply. Corbin Bosch had earlier squeezed expertly.

The Saffers appear to be rotating fast-bowling options. Two from Andile Simelane, Lungi Ngidi and Nadre Burger could come out for Gerald Coetzee and Kwena Maphaka. 

Possible SA XI:  Pretorius, Hendricks, van der Dussen, Hermann, Brevis, Bosch, Linde, Coetzee, Peter, Maphaka, Burger

New Zealand v South Africa T20 pitch report

The Harare surface is slow and low and both sides now know that setting a target batting first of high 160s or more is the way to go. With pace off the ball defending that should be more than enough. It might be worth considering shorting New Zealand total runs at 165.5 as a result, keeping on side South Africa batting first.

Another unders play is total fours at 25.5 at 5/61.84. That has won in 11 of the last 18. Six and ten-overs totals may also be popular for unders plays. New Zealand, in particular, don't look to be set up for a fast start with Devon Conway circumspect. Under48.5 is available at 5/61.84 . In both their outings so far they have recorded six-over scores of 43.

New Zealand v South Africa T20 match prediction

New Zealand are 1.715/7 with South Africa 2.3211/8. There is little evidence that there is as big a gulf between these sides as the odds suggest. And if there was we would consider the pitch a great leveller.

Both outfits appear to be well-matched with spin bolwers and pace-off experts capable of turning the game; Mitch Santner and Michael Bracewell for the Kiwis and George Linde and Corbin Bosch for South Africa. 

One suspects that batting first could be key. More traffic through the surfacer could make chasing even harder. And as stated knowing that a score of 160 is more than competitive should free up the side batting first. The Saffers with the toss in their favour, then, are far from a mug bet at the odds.

It should be noted that there is nothing riding on the game in terms of progression. Zimbabwe cannot make the final so this is a dress rehearsal.

New Zealand v South Africa T20 player bets

Reeza Hendricks and Tim Seifert are both in the win zone for top bats in terms of success rate. The gamble could be ignoring Hendricks, though. This is just not a surface that suits his all-action style. Seifert may be better equipped to adapt. The 7/24.50 is better than Hendricks at a skinny 11/43.75.

The price on Coetzee to top score for South Africa at 100/1101.00 has to be pointed out. Coetzee is no way near a 100s chance on ability. And on a tricky batting surface a No 8 could quite easily come in and bash 30-odd to win the market. Coetzee was in the hunt for a win on this one in the first meeting between the two. 

The surface does seem perfect for the likes of Santner to have a big impact. His performance quote at 27.5 could be cheap. Four overs from him appear guaranteed.

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