New Zealand v Pakistan Third ODI Tips: Rain points to fours and sixes short

New Zealand v Pakistan
Friday 3 April 23.00
TV: live on TNT Sports

New Zealand v Pakistan third ODI team news

New Zealand have a 2-0 lead and can make it unassailable with success in game three. Despite the player drain, they show no sign of easing up.

Will Young was absent for the second ODI with Mark Chapman ruled out of the series. Given the Kiwi players at the IPL and injuries to Matt Henry and Tom Latham this is getting towards third-string territory. 

Rhys Mariu, a 23-year-old opener from Canterbury, debuted in Hamilton. He opens with Nick Kelly, who has played only twice. Muhammad Abbas, the all-rounder, had another decent game in his second appearance. Tim Seifert has been added to the squad but may only play if they decide Daryl Mitchell needs a rest. 

Probable NZ XI: Mariu, Kelly, Nicholls, Mitchell/Seifert, Bracewell, Abbas, Hay, Smith, Sears, Duffy, O'Rourke

Pakistan don't seem capable of putting together a complete batting performance. In the first match the top order got them into a solid position in a high chase. In the second they flopped leaving the lower-order to try to rescue affairs.

Faheem Ashraf was the star, hitting 73, much to our chagrin. He had been our pick to top score in the previous game at 45s but despite not playing was somehow cut to 22s. Khushdil Shah could get a game here as it seems a mystery as to why Pakistan continue to give chances to Tayyab Tahir.  Alternatively, Irfan Khan could come back in. They do seem a batter short with Mohammad Wasim at No 7 but Khushdil is a decent hitter.

Possible Pakistan XI: Shafique, Imam, Babar, Rizwan, Salman, Irfan/Khushdil, Wasim, Naseem, Rauf, Akif, Muqeem

New Zealand v Pakistan third ODI pitch report

There is no toss bias at Mount Manganui either in the 11 ODI in total or the four played as day games. But there does appear to be a trend for runs. More than 290 has been busted in the first dig in four of the last six, including New Zealand's 371 against Sri Lanka. We would expect the Kiwis 50-over line to be pushing on early 300 for overs. 

Rain is forecast but you are protected on that market if overs are lost. That looks a a possibility. There could even be a threat to the any action taking place at all. Rain is expected between 10am and 5pm. 

On the total fours and sixes lines there could be an edge in playing unders. Sportsbook go under 45.5 at 5/61.84 (a winner in six in the 11) and under 12.5 (six wins) at 8/111.73 respectively. For both to stand a minimum of 80% of the scheduled overs need to be bowled. if there is rain, we would expect the bowlers to be pleased as seam and swing could be forthcoming. 

New Zealand v Pakistan third ODI match prediction

New Zealand took their win tally to 14 matches against Pakistan in 19 white-ball matches this year. It is an extraordinary run of dominance.

It tells us that the New Zealand depth is strong in the player pool and that Pakistan are in a dishevelled state. They just cannot cope with the Kiwi efficiency. 

Forgive us, then, if we balk at the 2.3811/8 on offer about Pakistan. We need bigger than that to start considering them. This could be a nasty game for them if there is moisture in the air and cloud cover. A seaming and swinging ball should expose frailties. 

New Zealand v Pakistan third ODI player bets

Will O'Rourke is at 7/24.50 for top bowler and we will keep faith. He was in mean form in game two, conceding only 19 runs from his eight overs. It suggests he has the Pakistan batters right where he wants them and a decent haul could be on its way. The economy rate is a bonus because it means that in a dead heat on wickets taken, he could pinch the win by conceding fewest runs. We are keeping a close eye on Mohammad Rizwan at 7/24.50 as he could be approaching the win zone. 

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