New Zealand v Pakistan Second T20 Tips: Don't rule out Pakistan in the wet

Listen to Cricket...Only Bettor IPL Preview Part 1: the bottom 5

New Zealand v Pakistan Second T20 team news

New Zealand had no Conway, Ravindra, Williamson, Phillips, Santner or Henry and still had no problem in game one, winning by nine wickets. it would be a surprise if they made any changes to the XI as a result. 

They only needed five bowlers but they have loaded up with batting. Mark Chapman and Daryl Mitchell are part-time bowling options but they bat all the way down to No 9 with Kyle Jamieson, who was man of the match with three wickets.

With Tim Robinson, who could be classed as an opener, included at No 3, it means Chapman may be playing a finishing role and could bat as low as No 6. Zach Foukes, the all-rounder, got the nod ahead of Jimmy Neesham.

Probable NZ XI: Allen, Seifert, Robinson, Mitchell, Chapman, Hay, Bracewell, Foulkes, Jamieson, Sodhi, Duffy

Pakistan and their brave new world without Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan suddenly looks rather foolish. Rolled for 91, a record low-score by Pakistan against New Zealand, may mean they must either stick or twist early in the piece. 

They have gone for lower-order power with Samad, Kushdil and Jahandad all in the XI while Shadab Khan returned to the XI at No 5. They may try to find room for opener Omair Yousf or Usman Khan who was a surprising omission. 

Haris Rauf was left out and they may need his pace and experience. The bowling, not that it had anything to defend seemed to be a frontline pacer short. 

Possible Pakistan XI: Nawaz, Haris, Irfan, Salman, Shadab, Khusdhil, Samad, Rauf, Afridi, Ali, Abrar

New Zealand v Pakistan Second T20 pitch report

Eight of the last 11 T20 day matches at the University Oval have been won by the team batting second. There is a difference of run rate from 8.8 to 9.1 from first to second. The former suggests a flat surface with the home side likely to be capable of pushing on past 180. Their 20-over par line (void if rain reduces overs) could be mid 170s with Pakistan down at 160 to go over. More than 180 has been busted in seven of the 11 matches.

One of those includes the 224 New Zealand smashed against Pakistan at the start of 2024. So the option to play overs on 200, 210 and 220 may prove popular at chunky numbers on the innings runs markets. What could cause a problem is forecast rain. The innings runs market will be settled with five overs completed. 

New Zealand v Pakistan Second T20 match prediction

New Zealand's dominant performance has done little to dissuade punting folks that this is nothing more than a mismatch. Their price has dipped further into 1.321/3 with Pakistan as big as 4.003/1.

One has to start to consider that as value but only really because of the impact of weather. Rain could help Pakistan in two ways: disrupt the flow of the New Zealand batters and provide seam and swinging conditions for Haris Rauf and Shaheen Afridi. The pair are flaky these days but are a match for anyone in the world in helpful conditions.

It is tough to let a bet run on Pakistan but there is room for a trade. We will keep that toss bias on side, however, and hope they can shorten to 2.206/5. 

One edge for the visitors which was discussed before game one was on the sixes match bet. Pakistan actually had a superior average in terms of numbers per game hit. But their selection in terms of top seven, leaving out the strong Omair Yousuf and Usman Kahn, has seen that disappear. They are a six behind the Kiwis. 

Whether that justifies Kiwi favouritism at 8/111.73 remains to be seen but 8/52.60 Pakistan isn't the worst wager considering they tied at four each at Hagley Oval. 

New Zealand v Pakistan Second T20 player bets

Finn Allen smashed 137 from 62 balls in the 2024 meeting on this ground. With that form under his belt he is unlikely to feel like a bad wager at Sportsbook's 9/25.50. If the rain does take hold there is obviously an advantage to opening the batting. Ten overs would be needed for bets to stand on the top bats and bowlers markets.

We were on Mark Chapman for top Kiwi last time. He has eight wins on top bat for New Zealand in the last two year with six of those against Pakistan. But we were pretty sure he would bat at No 3. Now we're unsure and it could even be as low as No 6. With that and rain also potentially shortening overs the sensible call is to swerve. 

Listen to Cricket...Only Bettor IPL Preview Part II: the contenders

Now read more Cricket tips and previews here!