New Zealand v Pakistan Second ODI Tips: Back O'Rourke at 16/5 for top bowler

New Zealand v Pakistan
Tuesday 1 April 23.00
TV: live on TNT Sports

New Zealand v Pakistan second ODI team news

New Zealand look to have unearthed another gem of a player with Muhammad Abbas smashing 52 from 26 on debut in game one from the number six slot. He then took a wicket.

Their depth was further underlined with Mark Chapman batting at number four and hitting a 111-ball 132 as the Kiwis amassed 344 on a McLean Park pitch which had, for years, been dreadful to bat on. It may have even taken the hosts by surprise as they had picked just five bowlers and had Mitchell Hay at number eight.

They may want to find room for Ben Sears for extra pace quality. That could put Will Young under pressure at the top of the order with everyone moving up a spot. Chapman misses out, however. Tim Seifert has come into the squad with Chapman suffering a hamstring injury. It should be a straight swap. 

Possible NZ XI: Young, Kelly, Nicholls, Seifert, Mitchell, Abbas, Bracewell, Hay, Sears, Duffy, O'Rourke

Pakistan brought in Usman Khan for only his second game on the tour, only for him to be ruled out for the series having made a promising 39 from 33. Imam-ul-haq is expected to come into the opening role alongside Abdullah Shafique.

With Babar Rizwan at number three and Mohammad Rizwan at four it's a pretty tasty top order. Salman Aghan is solid at five but it heads south after that. Naseem Shah is not a number eight. What is particularly worrying about that is they looked a bowler short.

Khushdil Shah, the all-rounder, may have to play with Tayyab Tahir missing out.  Mohammad Wasimis another option but his batting is not as strong as Khushdil's.

Possible Pakistan XI: Shafique, Imam, Babar, Rizwan, Salman, Irfan, Khushdil, Naseem, Rauf, Akif, Ali

New Zealand v Pakistan second ODI pitch report

Bowlers have been in the game at Seddon Park. In all ODI since 2020 (six matches) there have been two scores of more than 330 but a 157 all out and New Zealand could post only 264 against Netherlands. Domestically, batters have struggled. Here's a list of the most recent Ford Trophy first digs of games which were not rain reduced: 248-248-198-176-280-186-274-222.

It is tempting to reckon that shorting runs is the play. We were lined up to do that to Pakistan in Napier. Fortunately the toss saved us as it appeared to be a road despite all evidence to the contrary.

Their line looks like to be going off at 260 or 270 to go unders, however, and that may not give us much wriggle room. 

The weather forecast suggests there could be seam and swing. Cloud cover is expected for the duration but there is no rain  predicted.

New Zealand v Pakistan second ODI match prediction

New Zealand are 1.728/11 with Pakistan 2.3211/8. Maybe we're surprised the hosts are not in the 1.608/13 region because their dominance of Pakistan, no matter the personnel available, has continued. They've met an incredible 18 times just this year in white ball and the Kiwis have won 13 of them.

Pakistan probably need some assistance from either a toss bias, reduction in overs or a bowling wicket to get on the scoreboard. It is not clear whether they will get that.

We're not convinced that domestic form carries over into ODI with groundstaff keen to show their surface in the best light. There have been seven wins from 12 for the chaser, though. 

New Zealand v Pakistan second ODI player bets

Will Young should enjoy good vibes at Seddon Park. He took a ton off the Dutch at the venue and managed a half-century two games ago. He is overdue a top-bat win having impressed with a solid two-year win rate. We await a price from Sportsbook but would expect a 7/24.50 chance. Normally no price would mean an injury or squad omission but there was no such update included with the release about Chapman. 

With the ball, Will O'Rourke can step up to be the main striker in the absence of Matt Henry. O'Rourke is likely to rival Henry as one of the best in the world in the next 12 months. He should be clear favourite in our book and the 16/54.20 is a bit of a steal.

Nathan Smith is the jolly after cheap wickets against the tail but there's a chasm between the two in terms of ability and expectation in this team. Smith doesn't get through as many overs as O'Rourke for a start. 

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