New Zealand v Pakistan First ODI Tips: Low runs bet is the smart play

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New Zealand v Pakistan
Friday 29 March, 22:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

New Zealand v Pakistan first ODI team news

New Zealand are not at full strength as you would expect with the IPL underway. Michael Bracewell leads with Will Young, Daryl Mitchell and Henry Nicholls the senior players. Tom Latham has pulled out with injury.

Young and Nichollas are expected to open the batting. One of Wellington's middle order pair of Nick Kelly and Muhammad Abbas could be in line to debut. 

Will O'Rourke, Jacob Duffy and Ben Sears could form a three-pronged pace attack. Mark Chapman may be required as the sixth bowler. He could also bat No 3 to ensure Abbas bats in his favoured position.

Possible NZ XI: Young, Nicholls, Abbas, Mitchell, Chapman, Hay, Bracewell, Smith, Sears, Duff, O'Rourke

Pakistan have brought back Mohammad Rizwan and Babar Azam but out go Shaheen Afridi and Haris Rauf. 

Abdullah Shafique and Imam-Ul-haq should open the batting with Fakhar Zaman and Saim Ayub still injured. Naseem Shah leads the bowling attack with Khushdil Shah and Mohammad Wasim the bridge between the batters and the bowlers. 

Possible Pakistan XI: Shafique, Imam, Babar, Rizwan, Salman, Tayyab, Khushdil, Wasim, Naseem, Ali, Abrar

New Zealand v Pakistan first ODI pitch report

There have been only three ODIs at McLean Park since 2019. But bowlers have dominated. The scores in those games read: 98-232-157. The 98 was by New Zealand against Bangladesh in 2023. 

In the one List A match played in the Ford Trophy this season, there was a first-innings all-out score of 162. In the 2023-24 season there was one match with the first-innings score of 233.  The previous season they read: 233-268-205-212.

There is no rain forecast for Napier but the weather hasn't been great. There was rain before gameday and cloud cover can be expected.

It all points to a runs sell in the first dig and Pakistan should be available to go under around the mid 260s mark on the par line. That bet would have won in eight of their last 14 on the road, giving us the edge at even money.

New Zealand v Pakistan first ODI match prediction

The side that wins the toss is likely to bowl first given the scorecard history and the overheads. There is, then, the opportunity for a trade on Pakistan at 2.588/5.

But there is no guarantee that Pakistan get over the line. They have a shocking record against the Kiwis in white ball. They have lost the last six ODI and eight of the last ten T20.

The seam and swing which is on offer just appears to be too much for them, which is why the innings runs short is the top-rated wager.

New Zealand v Pakistan first ODI player bets

Young is overdue a success on top bat for New Zealand and the 7/24.50 fits the bill nicely in terms of win rate. Young, although facing a different attack, should have the feelgood factor considering he took a ton off Pakistan in the Champions Trophy.

Babar is 11/43.75 for top Pakistan bat but it's not a wrong price on how often he wins. Rizwan is borderline at 7/24.50 but doesn't have the feel of value in case this is a tricky batting wicket. Lower-order picks like Faheem Ashraf at 45/146.00 have more appeal. A thrashed 30-odd could win this.

Faheem might not play but Betfair punters get their money back if he's a non-runner. Faheem has shown he has the technique to score in these conditions with runs (including 91) in the 2021 Test series. 

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