New Zealand v Pakistan Fifth T20 Tips: Rely on fast start from Kiwis

New Zealand v Pakistan
Wednesday 26 March, 06:15
TV: live on TNT

New Zealand v Pakistan Fifth T20 team news

New Zealand wrapped the series in Mount Manganui with a game to spare. They batted first and raced to 220 with four of the top seven busting 150 strike rates. Finn Allen top scored with 50 off 20.

The bowlers did the rest as Pakistan were rolled for 105. Ben Sears took four and Zak Foulkes three. Will O'Rourke returned to the XI. Michael Bracewell, the skip, didn't even need to bowl himself. There's a chance New Zealand change up their batting order. They could also bring back Tim Robinson up the order and rest Jimmy Neesham. Mark Chapman and Daryl Mitchell could be sixth and seventh bowlers if required. 

Probable NZ XI: Allen, Seifert, Chapman, Mitchell, Neesham, Hay, Bracewell, Foulkes, Sodhi, O'Rourke, Sears

Pakistan are rebuilding in this format so it was not a huge surprise that having put in a tremendous performance in game three, they collapsed horribly in game four.

Inspired by Hasan Nawaz's ton when they got up to chase 204 for the loss of one wicket, their top order was blown away. Abdul Samad, highlighted as a bet at 14s, took top-bat honours. It could be that Usman Khan and Omair Yousuf get a hit for the first time in the series in place of Mohammad Haris and Irfan Khan respectively.

But they may be most disappointed that an experienced bowling line-up including Shaheen Afridi and Haris Rauf went round the park. Spinner Sufi Muqeem await a game.

Possible Pakistan XI: Omair, Nawaz, Salman, Usman, Shadab, Khusdhil, Samad, Khusdil, Rauf, Abbas, Abrar/Muqeem

New Zealand v Pakistan Fifth T20 pitch report

There is no toss bias in night matches at Sky Stadium from 11 games. There is a gap between run rates in first- and second-innings, however with 8.9 playing 8.2. STudy sample is an issue with only four matches since 2020. When the Kiwis met Australia at the venue in February 2024, both sides busted 215 with Australia chasing 216 with seven wickets left in the hutch.

One would expect the Kiwi runs line batting first to be at least in the 190s. They are far more reliable to bust it and one would expect this to be a decent batting track. The sixes market is of interest. Sportsbook offer over 15.5 at 4/51.80. A massive 30 were hit in NZ-Aus match. The tallies in this series read: 16-22-19-8. No rain is forecast.

New Zealand v Pakistan Fifth T20 match prediction

New Zealand are 1.444/9 with Pakistan 3.1511/5. There have been bigger and better odds on Pakistan available in this series so getting involved in something skinny holds little appeal.

Pakistan, as stated, are going to be more up and down that ever before with the bat at least as they try new personnel. They are only really a fancy at this stage with conditions (such as a slow pitch, toss bias and rain) helping to reduce the gulf a bit.

Potentially the easiest way to be paid for Kiwi dominance is in the 10 over market. Sportsbook offer 5/61.84 that they bust 87.5. Their scores this series read: 134-105-108-90

New Zealand v Pakistan Fifth T20 player bets

It's just possible that New Zealand move their bat order around with the series already won. They may want to have a look at Mitchell Hay up the order so 9/110.00 may have some appeal for top home bat. For game four we identified Samad as an underrated hitter. In the spirit, then, of another Pakistan collapse Jahandad Khan, who can give it a fearful whack, catches the eye at 33/134.00.  Rauf has won the last three top bowler markets for Pakistan. We often say he's a man only to follow when in touch. It is fine to back him for back-to-back x2 at 3s. 

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