New Zealand v India First T20 Tips: Rely on old faithfuls Yadav and Phillips

• Should be a choice affair

• Be wary of rain

• Yadav and Phillips value at 16/5 and 5/1

New Zealand v India
Friday 18 November, 06:30
TV: Live on BT Sport

Team news

New Zealand obviously weren't paying attention to what made the difference in the World Cup. Kane Williamson will retain his spot at No 3 despite a strike rate of 116 and a frankly disgraceful boundary percentage of 10.

Martin Guptill and Trent Boult are axed from the squad but the only bowling reinforcement is Blair Tickner. One would expect Adam Milne to take Boult's role.

Finn Allen and Glenn Phillips, who do play the right way, will have to show Williamson how it's done. Michael Bracewell could be involved as well.

Possible XI: Allen, Conway, Williamson, Phillips, Mitchell, Neesham, Bracewell, Santner, Southee, Milne, Ferguson

The Big Three have been left out for India. So preumably India's batting may fare better without KL Rahul, Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli whose safety-first approach was brutally exposed by England in the semi-final.

Exuberance could come instead from Ishan Kishan, Rishabh Pant and Sanju Samson. Hardik Pandya will skipper the side and it will be interesting to see whether he insists on Suryakumar Yadav getting to the crease as early as possible.

There could be a balance issue. Deepak Hooda may have to be the sixth bowling option if India want to bat deep. Arshdeep Singh is suddenly attack leader although Harshal Patel is a welcome returnee.

Pissible XI: Gill, Kishan, Pant, Yadav, Hardik, Samson/Shreyas, Hooda, Sundar, Harshal, Arshdeep, Umran Malik

Pitch report

There's a little to go on in terms of ground form for the Sky Stadium (formerly the Westpac). Six of the previous nine (a sequence dating back to 2016) have seen scores of more than 160. The weather forecast is a little dodgy and with both units stronger with the ball, this contest has an unders feel.

How to play

New Zealand are 1.794/5 and India are 2.245/4. That's a significant cut on the Kiwis since they named their squad. Man for man it's hard to justify that favouritism.

This could be about motivation. Are New Zealand pumped for another T20 series after the World Cup with pretty much the same personnel? There is a suspicion there's more riding on it for Indians trying to force their way into a first-choice XI.

Before the home squad was announced the market made it a choice affair and that seemed about right.

Tops value

Kohli and Yadav top-scored in five of India's six innings in Australia. The pair dominated the market in the two years before the World Cup, too. So with Kohli absent surely Yadav has little to beat at 16/5 with Sportsbook. It is win-rate value. For the Kiwis, Phillips is underrated at 5/1.

With the ball Arshdeep is 11/4 jolly for top India bowler while Milne is big at 4s for New Zealand with him likely to bowl at the death.