New Zealand v England First ODI Tips: Bet runs on flat track

• New Zealand strong at home

• One-dimensional England overrated

• Bay Oval wicket has been good for batters

• No rain forecast

• Henry and Root players to follow

New Zealand v England
Sunday 26 October, 01:00
TV: Live on TNT

New Zealand v England first ODI team news

New Zealand welcome back Kane Williamson, who hasn't played for his country since March. He missed the T20 series because of a medical problem.

Mitch Santner leads an efficient unit but they have been hampered by the loss of Kyle Jamieson to injury. That means Nathan Smith is likely to play as the bowling all-rounder. 

Their sixth bowling option may be a combination of Rachin Ravdinra and Daryl Mitchell. With the bat they do lack a batter who is capable of taking a game away from an opponent in a chaotic burst. 

Possible New Zealand XI: Conway, Young, Ravindra, Williamson, Mitchell, Chapman, Bracewell, Santner, Smith, Henry, Duffy

England will not be risking in Jofra Archer in game one of the ODI series. Why they're risking him at all is perhaps the more pertinent question with the pacer due to arrrive for the second ODI.

There has been some strange selection policies on this tour. What was the point of bringing Zak Crawley for the T20 series for example? Archer's absence means that Luke Wood should be the tearaway option. Jamie Overton may come in for Brydon Carse at some stage with an eye on the Ashes for the latter.

Otherwise big guns Ben Duckett, Joe Root and Jamie Smith all return. Rehan Ahmed is again carrying drinks with England set on the Dawson-Rashid combo.

Possible England XI: Duckett, Smith, Root, bethell, brook, Buttler, S Curran, Dawson, Rashid, J Overton/Carse, Wood

New Zealand v England first ODI pitch report

The good news is that, at the time of writing, no rain is forecast. The T20 series was ruined by weather in an spring schedule for the Kiwis. The better news is that there is a clear trend for runmaking at the Bay Oval. In the last ten, the average first-innings score is 303, leading to a 67% bias for the side batting first.

When we filter day-night matches however (seven since 2018) a different pitcure begins to emerge in terms of the importance of the flip. The toss bias disapperas to a 3-4 split for the chaser. The runs are still there though with three out of the seven producing wins for both teams to score 290 or more. The price, therefore, that catches the eye from the coupon is the both teams for 275 at 13/102.30. New Zealand's average runs scored in the last ten is 283 and England's 289.

New Zealand v England first ODI match prediction

The Mount Manganui surface should be right up England's street. One suspects they need an absolute belter of a batting wicket to play to their undoubted strength, which is hitting. 

They got that last time out in this format against South Africa in Southampton but whenever a bit of nuance is required, they are in troiuble. Witness defeats at Lord's and Headingley in the same series. It is often said but they are all brawn and little brain with six defeats in their last ten.

The Kiwis are probably the opposite. Give them a surface where they have to fight and think and they come on top, as witnessed by seven wins in their last nine at home. 

The upshot is that, when all is fair, the Kiwis are underrated at that 2.305/4 mark but we would much rather be on them with something in the surface. Unless they bat first. If that happens they are perfectly reasonable trade to flip these odds. 

New Zealand v England first ODI player bets

There are some solid win rates to consider for this game and throughout the series. The first player of interest is Will Young, the Kiwi opener. His return rate of 28% in all matches since the end of the last World Cup is surprisingly good because although solid, one suspects he lacks the true class of one of the best in the world. At 4/15.00, though, he is clearly underrated. We might have a look at his shape in game one and return to the bet.

Milestone betting is probably the way to leverage win rates anyway and in the absence of a price for Young, Joe Root (41% top bat) is 11/82.38 for a fifty. with the ball, Matt Henry is Mr Reliable. He has played only nine games since the World Cup so the 44% is likely to come down. Sportsbook's 12/53.40 is not short enough, though. 

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to The Ashes