Ed Hawkins is expecting runs in Wellington for the last game of the series on Thursday night...
"Mushfiqur gives us a chunky edge on win rate at 9/2. We were on in game two and although he should have gone on after getting a start, we'll keep faith"
New Zealand v Bangladesh
Thursday 25 March, 22:00
TV: live on BT Sport
New Zealand are two-up with one to play. After thrashing Bangladesh in game one they were able to overcome the shock of their visitors putting them under pressure in game two. And eventually won at a canter.
Bangladesh posted 271 for six and the Kiwis could have been facing something much bigger with 20 overs left and Tamim Iqbal going well at 133 for two. But Kyle Jamieson produced another excellent effort with the ball, to further his credentials as the emerging all-rounder in the world.
Jamieson claimed the wicket of Tamim and returned an economy rate of just 3.60. If the sport valued ball and bat equally, Jamieson would have been named man of the match. Without that show, Tom Latham wouldn't have had such an easy task for 108-ball 110 and the match gong.
The Kiwis may make one change, giving Mark Chapman a game with Will Young stepping aside.
Possible XI Guptill, Nicholls, Conway, Young, Latham, Neesham, Mitchell, Santner, Jamieson, Boult, Henry
Bangladesh were favourites when they reduced New Zealand to 53 for three in the chase. A wicket apiece for Mutsafizur Rahman and Mahedi Hasan pinned the Kiwis back and a run out increased the panic.
Alas there isn't the depth in the Bangladesh attack to keep pressure applied. This is where they miss Shakib-al-Hasan, who will also be absent for the T20 leg that follows.
Taskin Ahmed and Mohammad Saifuddin, two bowlers with decent numbers behind them, were unable to keep things tight.
There is little Bangladesh can do to freshen things up with the series gone. Soumya Sarkar could well lose bis spot to youngster Najmul Shanto.
Possible XI Tamim, Das, Shanto, Mushfiqur, Mithun, Mahmudullah, Mahedi, Saifuddin, Miraz, Rahmann, Taskin
There have been only three ODI played at the Basin reserve, Wellington since 2010. The first-innings scores (102 denote match won by team batting first or second) read: 271-1/315-1/280-1. All were against Pakistan. All were won by the hosts. In List A cricket this year it has been a mixed bag. Here are the scores: 427-340-188-205.
With those two monstrous scores last time out, New Zealand are going to be a fancy for 350, 360 or 370 or more at increasingly big prices batting first.
Bangladesh need to bat first
Nothing doing here. New Zealand are 1.171/6 early doors with Bangladesh 7.4013/2. Game two at least provided a blueprint for a trade. But the tourists are going to have to bat first.
There will be room for manoeuvre if Bangladesh can post something upwards of 270 and them get among the Kiwi batting in quick time. However, if they field first we would expect the Bangladesh price to get bigger and bigger very quickly. There is no rain forecast.
Devon Conway averages 59 and has two centuries on this ground. He looks the most likely wager for top New Zealand bat at 7/2 with Sportsbook. We note Conway's price of 5/1 for top match batsman. Martin Guptill has a ton against Pakistan but we can't get involved at 2/1. On a potentially flat surface, he may have more appeal to score a fifty at 11/10.
There is value all over the place for top Bangladesh bat. Mushfiqur Rahim gives us a chunky edge on win rate at 9/2. We were on in game two and although he should have gone on after getting a start, we'll keep faith. Liton Das is overpriced at 5/1 for an opener. Tamim is one to swerve after recording his first notable score in New Zealand. Saifuddin has appeals at 25s.
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Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end