Ed Hawkins says there is good value to be had on the tourists runs markets in game two from Christchurch early on Tuesday...
"Unsurprisingly, using their average per wicket as a projection for an all-out 50 over score they have busted 225 seven times."
New Zealand v Bangladesh
Tuesday 23 March, 01:00
TV: live on BT Sport
New Zealand did not break sweat in game one in Dunedin. Bowling first they knocked the Bangladeshis over for just 131. It was the repeat of the 2019 series that Bangladesh and the neutrals feared - a mismatch.
Trent Boult picked up the man of the match award for four wickets as Bangladesh's weakness in alien conditions was exposed. Seam and swing at pace, to be fair, is not what they're used to but it's all rather dull that they are still producing associate performances 21 years after gaining full status.
The hosts are not at full-strength. There is no Kane Williamson or Ross Taylor. Devon Conway and Will Young replaced them, both making debuts.
Possible XI Guptill, Nicholls, Conway, Young, Latham, Mitchell, Neesham, Santner, Southee, Henry, Boult
Bangladesh are likely to feel frustrated because three of their batters got in during that first game in Dunedin. Liton Das, Mushfiqur and Mahmudullah had done the hard work and were making headway only to be dismissed at a crucial time.
We have seen it before. Bangladesh's top three had scored only 65 runs at an average of 7.22 in that ODI series in 2019. And all Bangladesh batsman have struggled - since ODI series starting in 2007 the top order has managed averages of 19 to 32 in New Zealand.
So there is zero evidence that they are suddenly going to be able to counter the Kiwi assault. Tamim Iqbal, their best player, has been particularly poor while Soumya Sarkar, suddenly promoted to No 3, looks very unsure of his role having been up and down the order in recent years.
Possible XI Tamim, Das, Sarkar, Mushfiqur, Mithun, Mahmudullad, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Mahedi Hsan, Taskin, Mahmud, Mustafizur,
The last ten 50-over first-innings scores at the Hagley Oval read: 226/223/325/289/341/117/188/303/310/331. A deeper dive on those numbers reveals bad news for the tourists. The 226 last time out (2019) was by Bangladesh. The high score of 341 was against Bangladesh and the scores of 117 and 188 were by fellow Asian sub-continent team Sri Lanka.
We're shaping up, then, for a short of their runs. In all ODI, Bangladesh average 22.5 runs per wicket in New Zealand against New Zealand. They have busted 260 only twice in 15 attempts. Unsurprisingly, using their average per wicket as a projection for an all-out 50 over score they have busted 225 seven times. Laying 230 or more if they bat first then if even money is available is a wager.
Bangladesh up against it
This is the first ODI ever under lights at Hagley Oval. There will be a temptation to reckon that, if Bangladesh bat first, they could make in roads into big numbers on the odds. And what numbers. Early doors New Zealand are chalked at 1.101/10. That might drift closer to toss time, of course, but even if Bangladesh do go off at around the 6.5011/2 mark batting first, then it is still going to take a mighty effort to get that down more than two points.
Realistically they are going to have to bust that 260 mark we spoke about and even then there is no guarantee. There is better value on the innings runs markets and side markets. No rain is currently forecast.
Finding value on the top Bangladesh runscorer market is pretty straightforward. With 3/1 jolly Sarkar and second favourite Tamim both enduring poor records in New Zealand, we can look down the list with confidence. Sarkar averages 17 and Tamim 23. Compare those numbers (and prices) to Mehidy Hasan at 20 (11/1), Mossadek Hossain 32 (9/1) and Saifuddin 31.6 (20/1) you have yourself a potentially rosy garden to level stakes.
Still, we're surprised that Mushfiqur is as big as 9/2. He has seven wins in 21 in the last two years and one tie. On outright win rate he should be 2/1. So there's a massive chunk in our favour.
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Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end