Melbourne Stars v Brisbane Heat Big Bash Tips: Stars not to be trusted again

• Stoinis returns

• MCG pitch one for under 160

• Coulter-Nile and Neser top-bat fancies

Melbourne Stars v Brisbane Heat
Monday 16 September, 08.15
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Stars' Nick Larkin shouldn't play again after a disastrous marshalling effort in the chase against Renegades. Stars were 1.011/100 until Larkin's go-slow intervention. An opportunity to leave him out comes with Marcus Stoinis returning from injury.

Possible XI: Clarke, Rogers, Cartwright, Stoinis, Webster, Seymour, Hinchcliffe, Coulter-Nile, Wood, Couch, Zampa

Heat produced a stunning performance to beat Strikers last time out. They defended 154 despite Strikers boasting possibly the best-looking top four in the competition. James Bazley took three wickets and Sam Hain's power in the middle-order is a boost.

Probable XI: Brown, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Renshaw, Hain, Peirson, Bazley, Neser, Johnson, Swepson, Kuhnemann

Pitch report

The three first-innings scores at the MCG this seaosn have produced scores of 108, 183 and 141. Six matches from ten last season in the Bash at the MCG produced scores of 160 or more in the first dig. It's an unders play on the par line, then, on the data if we're getting even money in the mid 160s.

How to play

Stars are 2.285/4 with Heat 1.728/11. Considering Stars' disgraceful effort against Renegades last time out it is likely to be a long time before anyone considers them worthy of trust again.

As for Heat, do we really we want to be betting a side which has won three times in 10 at odds-on? Of course not. Sometimes there are stinkers in betting heats and this is one.

Tops value

Joe Clarke did look in decent touch for Stars against renegades and is boosted to 11/4 with Sportsbook. Usman Khawaja gets the same treatement for Heat at 16/5. Another disastrous Stars batting effort is always on the cards so we must point out again big prices like Nathan Coulter-Nile at 45/1 and Luke Wood at 100/1. Michael Neser has similar appeal at 50s for Heat.