The MLC jamboree moves back to Dallas and the Grand Prairie Stadium. Will it offer respite to batters who struggled at the brand- new Pomona ground in California? The data says yes.
We have a lengthy study period to have faith in at this venue and we should expect batsmen to come to the fore again. The average total runs at this venue in the last 30 is an impressive 360.9 and the average first-innings score is 187.4.
Immediately there is an angle (although not much of a margin) on Sportsbook's total runs quotes for both teams. They offer 5/61.84 over 184.5 the pair. Given Unicorns' greater reliability that could be a bet straight off the bat and it's slightly surprising it has not been pitched higher.
The total sixes line, however, at 19.5 might be a little high, particularly as it's as short as 4/51.80. The average number per match in our study period is 17.1
In terms of toss bias, there is an edge for the side chasing. It stands at 57%. Unicorns, who top the table, should probably be clear favs considering they won the head-to-head this term by five wickets could represent even better value of the toss goes their way. In-play we do not expect the markets to be aware.
For top bats, openers have won at a greater hit rate of even money in Dallas across those 30 games. Quinton de Kock is one of the most reliable in the tournament while it could be time for Finn Allen to produce something spectacular. They are 5/23.50 and 11/43.75 respectively.
Washington Freedom are back on track. They have won their last two games to rediscover the form which won them the league season in 2025 only to slip up in the final against MINY. They should push on to confirm a play-off spot..
LA, meanwhile, have reverted to type in a comforting retention of the status quo for punters. After winning their first two matches they have lost four of their last five. Playing at their new home ground in Pomona didn't work for them as they hoped.
As one would expect, Freedom are skinny favourites. But there are other angles to pursue. The statistic about openers dominating the top bats should be the focus. Mitch Owen is an option at 3/14.00 for Freedom after Steve Smith made a surprising switch to the middle order. But it is Jack Edwards at 17s who is the true wrong price. Edwards opened last time out for Freedom and might be given another chance.
Edwards' promotion and Smith's move down may be Freedom looking ahead to when Mark Chapman departs for the Caribbean for New Zealand's ODI series against West Indies. This will be Chapman's last game if he's not left already.
For LA there is a win-rate option. Unmukt Chand started the season with an impressive two-year win rate of 40%. The bulk of those was from the top order. He is back there now and opened in their last match. There's not a huge amount to beat so it is a relatively simple task to consider the 11/26.50 a rick.
(0.5pts) back Unmukt Chand top La bat v Freedom