India v South Africa T20 World Cup Tips: Saffers threaten Indian supremacy

• Runs could return in Perth
• Yadav and Markram to the fore
• Chaser wins it

India v South Africa
Sunday 30 October, 12:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

India are the favourites for glory. They head the market because of what others have not done, rather than what they have achieved.

They may well go on to lift the title, after all, they would need to suffer a catastrophic collapse not to make the last four. But they should have been well-beaten by Pakistan while their batting was pinned down by the Dutch.

Probable XI: Rahul, Rohit, Kohli, Yadav, Hardik, Karthik, Axar, Ashwin, Kumar, Shami, Arshdeep, Shami

South Africa underlined their new aggressive intent with a hammering of Bangladesh. Only against the hopeless Banglas, though?

True. Aggression in big tournaments has not been a hallmark of Saffer teams however. Now they have to do it in a big game. The strike rates of Rilee Rossouw, Aiden Markram and Trustan Stubbs in the last 12 months suggest they know only one way.

Tabraiz Shamsi should retain his spot ahead of Lungi Ngidi, who was pricey in the sides recent T20 series. If South Africa drop Temba Bavuma they can win the title. If they don't...

Probable XI: QDK, Bavuma, Rossouw, Markram, Stubbs, Miller, Parnell, Maharaj, Rabada, Nortje, Shamsi

Pitch report

If runs are to return in Perth it will probably be with these two. More than 200 was busted three times in three games in the head-to-head earlier this year. Sportsbook go 7/5 that both teams score 160. That could be a bet.

How to play

India are 1.594/7 with South Africa 2.6813/8. One of our golden rules is not to take on India in the chase. They are almost unbeatable.

But we are more than happy to get with South Africa in a chase. The gulf between these sides has been shown not to be as big in India in October in a ding-dong affair. South Africa went shot-for-shot with India in two of the three games.

There is also a sneaking suspicion that India's weak death bowling hasn't been exposed yet and South Africa have the power to do it. On the flip side, if India have to chase up to 200 we'll back them to do it.

Tops value

We're waiting for Suryakumar Yadav to deliver fot top india bat. He looked in great touch against the Dutch and has two fifties in that series against South Africa. The 6/1 gives us a massive edge on win rate. Aiden Markram is also a win-rate wager at 13/2.

In his last six T20i innings (three v India) Bavuma has scored 7 runs off 27 balls. Under 17.5 is available at 10/11.