India v South Africa First T20 Tips: Saffers in with a shout in a chase

India v South Africa
Wednesday 28 September, 14.30

Team news

India will reckon they're on song after beating Australia 2-1. Grave doubts remain about whether they're picking their best XI, however.

They are denied the services of Deepak Hooda, who is injured. He was a player who could be another option to help help balance their team. Mohammad Shami is also a non-starter with Covid. Bhuv Kumar, who is in the World T20 squad, is is not involved. It is understood that Shreyas Iyer and Shahbaz Ahmed have been called up.

Their main selection puzzle will be whether to go with another spin option in Ravi Ashwin or another pacer in Arshdeep Singh. Rishabh Pant is unlikely to make the XI.

Possible XI: Rahul, Rohit, Kohli, Yadav, Hardik, Karthik, Axar, Arshdeep/Ashwin, Harshal, Bumrah, Chahal

One of these days the South Africa selectors may get the message about captain Temba Bavuma. They won in England without him and no franchise wanted him for the new SAT20 league.

Still, we expect him to return to the side meaning hitter Heinrich Klaasen could miss out. There is unlikely to be room for Aiden Markam. Markam would provide a sixth bowling option.

As it stands South Africa may only go with five bowling options. The form team in the world, they need to be careful that muddled thinking doesn't damn aspirations in next month's World Cup.

Possible XI: De Kock, Hendricks, Rossouw, Bavuma, Stubbs, Miller, Parnell, Rabada, Maharaj, Ngidi, Shamsi

Pitch report

We're relying on Syed Mushtaq Trophy form for this one from Thiruvananthapuram. But if the trends convert to the international it could be a surface which reduces the gulf in odds between the teams. Nine of the last 15 (one T20i) have been won by the side batting second. And in seven innings (first or second) there have been scores of below 100. Very cheap lays at 130 and 140 or more on the runs have low risk.

How to play

India are 1.558/15 with South Africa 2.789/5. We think that's value about South Africa who are a confident bunch and are well-versed in Indian conditions due to IPL experience.

We would have to lean on that toss bias, though. We don't want to get an India team which is masterful in the chase. At the least South Africa can flip these odds. Bet the match odds here.

Suryakumar Yadav and Markram (money back if he doesn't play) are two strong bets on win rates at 5/1 and 11/2 respectively for top India and SA bat. Rohit Sharma and Quinton de Kock are boosted to 11/4 and 3/1.

Neither are wagers on how often they win. We're keen on Lungi Ngidi who is an out-and-out wicket-taker and is underrtaed on every metric at 7/2 for top South Africa bowler. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

Cricket Only Bettor on how to bet India v SA

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