India v Pakistan T20 World Cup Tips: Pakistan underrated in grudge clash

• Rivals clash at the 'G on Sunday
• Rizwan and Yadav bets
• Expect tight affair

India v Pakistan
Sunday 23 October, 09:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

India could well make a change to their line-up based on the weather forecast. Adding batting power in a potentially over-reduced contest could be smart.

That might mean Rishabh Pant comes in and India rely on just the five bowlers with Hardik Pandya becoming the fulcrum.

India's batting is reliable and quick. But there are doubts about them at the death. Arshdeep Singh and Mohammad Shami are not reliable in that regard.

Possible XI: Rohit, Rahul, Kohli, Yadav, Pant, Hardik, Karthik, Harshal, Kumar, Chahal, Shami

Pakistan have suffered a blow on the eve of their tournament start. Shan Masood took a blow to the head in the nets and could be a doubt.

They have a ready-made replacement in Fakhar Zaman, who has been coming back from injury. However, he didn't play in their final warm-up.

Shaheen Shah Afridi could also make a return after a knee injury. Haris Rauf is crucial for Pakistan at the death. Pakistan's batting order from No 4 to 8 is flexible.

Possible XI: Rizwan, Babar, Fakhar, Haider, Shadab, Asif, Nawaz, Iftikhar, Wasim, Rauf, Afridi

Pitch report

The MCG has been consistent in the last 20 games. Eleven of those first-innings saw 160 or more. Nine were won by the side batting second.

A poor weather forecast makes playing the runs tricky as this could be an overs-reduced game but if there's moisture and cloud cover, it could pay to be going unders on the par line whoever bats first.

How to play

India are 1.584/7 with Pakistan 2.6813/8. We don't believe the gulf in odds is justified. Pakistan have won two of the last three and although India's recent form is good, tournament games tend to open up the cracks.

Pakistan can expose India's issue with the ball and bowler-freindly conditions play to their strength.

What we don't want to do is get with Pakistan batting first. India are chasers supreme and that's a mug's game to take them on.

Tops value

Mohammad Rizwan has been boosted to 3/1 with Sportsbook for top Pakistan bat. He's the most consistent in this market in the world. That's a big risk considering he's winning at close to 6/4. We also like Suryakumar Yadav at 4/1 for top India bat.

Anotehr side market wager is under nine sixes at around 2.01/1. The G is huge and maximums are often in short supply, as revealed on Cricket...Only Bettor this week.