India v Pakistan Asia Cup Tips: Pakistan can chase and win

India v Pakistan
Sunday 4 August, 15:00
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

India are two from two but they haven't impressed. Virat Kohli got them into a hole in their chase against Pakistan and their 40-run success over Hong Kong was put into sharp contrast by Pakistan hammering them.

Kohli should come out of the side but that won't happen. Instead, KL Rahul may be under pressure from his place from Rishabh Pant. That could mean Pant opens - as he has in the past - or Suryakumar Yadav moves up. Hardik Pandya was rested against Hong Kong. Wasn't he?

Looking ahead to the World Cup there is justified concern about Jasprit Bumrah's pace partners. Arshdeep Singh and Avesh Khan were taken apart by Hong Kong.

Possible XI: Rohit, Pant, Kohli, Yadav, Hardik, Karthik, Jadeja, Kumar, Avesh, Arshdeep, Chahal

Pakistan bowled out Hong Kong for 38 on Friday, proving they have the depth to cover the loss of the injured Shaheen Shah Afridi.

As ever, it was a classic Pakistan batting show. They were slow to get going, strategising to set the platform for the hitters at the death. Off the last four overs they took 69.

They could do with some runs for Babar Azam. He has had two failures so far. Mohammad Rizwan led the charge against Hong Kong with Khushdil Shah doing the damage at the denouement with a strike rate of 233.

Probable XI: Rizwan, Babar, Fakhar, Khushdil, Asif, Iftikhar, Shadab, Nawaz, Rauf, Naseem, Dahani

Pitch report

Fifteen of the last 16 matches in Dubai have been won by the chaser. Big runs are unlikely in first-innings. Only four matches have seen a first-dig score of 160 or more. Last time out Sri Lanka got up against Bangladesh when they had no right to. They chased 184. With Bangladesh in control at the death extras made all the difference. This could be blamed on a wet ball because of the dew. This is why we think it is so hard to defend. The runs market is here

How to play

We're not going against that toss bias. India, therefore, rate dreadful value at 1.574/7 before the flip. Pakistan are 2.6613/8.

It is unlikely that market reacts to the toss in a significant way throughout. Sri Lanka were as big as 5.85/1 at the start of their chase. We'd back India or Pakistan to go after something similar with confidence. Bet the match odds here.

Tops value

Babar has been boosted to 21/10 by Sportsbook for top Pakistan bat. Pant is 6/1 for India - that's a bet if you think he will open. Hardik is 11/1 for another man of the match performance. Bet the Sportsbook markets here. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.