Hobart Hurricanes v Sydney Sixers Big Bash Tips: Sixers surprisingly big

• Sixers should be shorter than 1.784/5

• Smith boosted to 11/5

• Henriques has the data on side at 5/1

Hobart Hurricanes v Sydney Sixers
Monday 23 January, 08:15
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Hobart are going to have to win their last two to make it to the play-offs. They have lost their last two. Asif Ali is in the squad despite being axed from the XI.

There are doubts whether Hobart are switched on. Batting Mitchell Owen ahead of hitter Faheem Ashraf in a tight chase against Heat last time was braindead.

Probable XI: Jewell, McDermott, Crawley, Wade, David, Short, Ashraf, Owen, Paris, Ellis, Meredith

Steve Smith's back-to-back centuries is indicative of a player finally adapting to the format or the low-quality nature of the league. Perhaps it is the latter cosnidering Marnus Labuschagne's struggles for Heat. Smith has learnt the value of his wicket finally.

Sixers are stronger than ever, then, with Smith in a new opening role. They are in a battle for top spot with Perth. Nathan Lyon was dropped for the easy win over Thunder.

Probable XI: Philippe, Smith, Patterson, Henriques, Silk, Christian, Kerr, Abbott, Dwarshuis, Murphy, O'Keefe

Pitch report

Thirteen of the last 20 first-innings scores at the Bellerive have been above 170 or more. Sixers will expect to bust that with ease if they bat first against a Hobart attack which has no international-class spin option and weak fifth- and sixth bowlers. The par line is likely to be in the high 160s.

How to play

Sixers are playing brilliant cricket. So long as they don't get cocky and reckon they can experiment, they should win comfortably. The 1.784/5 is a surprisingly big price.

It would be easy to reckon that Hobart have lost confidence. But the truth is they've never had any. They've never been sure of their best XI and there seems to be confusion about player roles.

Tops value

Smith has been boosted to 11/5 for a hat-trick of top bat wins. Smith has faced six balls against the probable attack line-up in his career. Moises Henriques has the outstanding record on the match-up and is value at 5/1. Matthew Wade is upped to 10/3 after he won last time out. He does well on the bowler match-up.