England v South Africa Third T20 Tips: Chaser to the fore

Ed Hawkins
30 July 2022
2:30 min read

Buttler is 3/1 to top score for England

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Ed Hawkins has all the team news, pitch data, trends and stats for the decider from Southampton on Sunday...

"The only possible way we can foresee getting with England is at odds-against at the break. At the least they could pull it back to a choice affair with the powerplay"

Trade England batting second from 2.407/5

England v South Africa
Sunday 31 July, 14.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England undone

England's batting resurgence proved to be a one-off if game two was anything to go by. Set a challenging, but hardly impossible, chase of 208 in Cardiff, they folded.

They made a rollicking start with Jos Buttler in blistering form but when he fell and Dawid Malan followed shortly after, the pressure proved to much. There were cameos from Moeen Ali (who is likely to be promoted to No 4 again if Malan goes cheaply), Jonny Bairstow and Liam Livingstone but the South Africa bowlers were too good.

Whether England tweak their bowling unit remains to be seen. Sam Curran was pricey so David Willey may fancy his chances. More likely is Jason Roy stepping away. The opener has struggled all summer and with Phil Salt a ready-made replacement in the squad it may be time to give him a go. Another option is to open with Bairstow and move Harry Brook onto the middle order.

Possible XI: Buttler, Salt, Malan, Bairstow, Moeen, Livingstone, S Curran, Jordan, Rashid, Gleeson, Topley

South Africa aggressive

South Africa levelled the series in Wales with a thunderous batting display. Short-term there are issues (we'll get to them) but if this is the way they're going to play with the bat then there's a lot to like.

A lack of carefree aggression (or fear of failure) has destroyed many a South Africa team. There are burgeoning signs that they are switching mentality. Twice in the series they have gone at more than 9.5 an over.

So it would be a dreadful shame if they were to them hamper the new breed by picking the wrong ones. They have to find room for a sixth bowling option. Long-term they just won't get away with it. The absence of Aiden Markam continues to baffle.

Unfortunately, we don't expect them to change a winning team. Markram in for Heinrich Klaasen would be harsh but fair. Or they could pick Dwaine Pretorius. Rilee Rossouw's 96 from 55 gives them a false idea of their strengths one fears.

Probable XI: De Kock, Hendricks, Rossouw, Klaasen, Stubbs, Miller, Phehlukwayo, Rabada, Maharaj, Shamsi, Ngidi

Pitch report

India made the Southampton surface look like a road earlier this month. They posted 198 in a 50-run victory. Only one of their top six failed to bust 140 in strike rate suggesting a hitter could swing without fear.

In the Blast, this season there were only three scores of 160 or more from six matches. Two of those were big totals of 221 and 199. Considering Cardiff and Bristol all produced massive runs out of line with county form, one suspects groundsmen are saving the best tracks for internationals.

What stops us from going big here and now on the weather forecast. Showers are forecast so we're hardly like to start advising of going long of the runs par line, which could be in the high 180s. If the forecast improves we would be interested in Sportsbook's 13/10 that both teams bust 170. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

Scoreboard pressure key

England are 1.654/6 and South Africa 2.506/4. We don't believe the gulf in odds is justified but betting the tourists is fraught with danger for two reasons. Bet the match odds here

Firstly, we think this is a toss game. Both teams are batting blasters with wayward bowling attacks. So the the decisive factor could be scoreboard pressure. Bat first, cut loose and post upwards of 190.

Without the flip in their favour, they're not worth the risk because with five bowlers only, two or maybe three are likely to round the park. Just as they did in the first match. And in the second, too, to be frank with Kagiso Rabada going at 11, Phehlukwayo at 13 and Keshav Maharaj at 9.

Tentatively, then, the only possible way we can foresee getting with England is at odds-against at the break. At the least they could pull it back to a choice affair with the powerplay.

Tops value

For the third game in the row Sportsbook are happy to take on the opening blasters from both teams in Buttler and Quinton de Kock. Buttler is once again boosted to 3/1 and De Kock 11/4.

Malan has taken a further cut to 7/2 for England. Moeen continues to be of interest at big numbers. The 15/2 is chunky for a guy who could bat at No 4. Salt could be sweet at 9/2. If he plays, he's likely to open.

With the ball, Lungi Ngidi is deserving of more respect considering seven wickets in two games. It's a surprise to see him at 10/3 for top Saffer bowler. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.