England v South Africa Second T20 Tips: Three strong home picks

Ed Hawkins
28 July 2022
2:30 min read

Moeen was man of the match in Bristol

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Ed Hawkins says South Africa must pick Aiden Markram and he rates a bet at 9/2 for top bat in Cardiff on Thursday night

"He wins 47% of the time in the last two years. It's a bet on win rate. it's a bet on batting order"

(2pts) Back Aiden Markram top SA bat 5.509/2

England v South Africa
Thursday 29 July, 18.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Buttler, Moeen and Malan value

Game one in Bristol was a harsh learning curve for top-bat pickers. We had correctly identified Moeen Ali as a player who would bat as high as No 5 and could perform well.

Moeen did so, smashing an extraordinary 52 from 18 balls. But there was no top-bat win. Instead he won the man of the match award for his innings which included six sixes.

It was particularly tough to take that Jonny Bairstow topped. Bairstow was the go-to man throughout the ODI series between against South Africa and India on win rate. But didn't manage a single win. In T20, where he won only four times in 33 it was Sod's Law that he would cop.

What can we learn from being disappointed? Well, Bairstow's success has to be looked at in isolation. What he did, or didn't do, for us in ODI is irrelevant. Fair play to him for winning against the win rate. When a batsman wins at skinnier odds than he should, it's not considered a missed opportunity.

But in T20, identifying the talent is no guarantee of profit. Moeen has been pushed out to 12/1 for top bat in Cardiff from 11/1. Even though it provided an edge on win rate, no-one would have backed him at the odds if they had known he would face just 18 balls.

It could be, then, that playing the man of the match market is a better strategy. It keeps on side the style of a player's runs and anything he achieves in the field. So folks like Moeen and Liam Livingstone will continue to catch the eye.

Price is always king, though. And Sportsbook are aware of our rationale it would seem. Mo's shorter for the match gong than he is for top runscorer at 11s. Livingstone at least is two points bigger.

The exception to this strategy is someone like Dawid Malan. Malan' style alone is rarely going to win him the match award. He needs to top score for the winning team. He's taken quite a chunky cut from 4/1 to 16/5. That's probably because it was confirmed that he retained his No 3 position.

Malan is a bet on win rate. Likewise for the 11/2 that he is top match runscorer on career data. With Jos Buttler also rating value on the same metric for top England at 3/1 by 1.9% there's an embarrassment of riches with three strong selections. Bet the Sportsbook markets here

Top England wins/matches last two years
Roy 6/30
Malan 10/35
Buttler 7/26
Bairstow 5/34
Moeen 6/28
Livingstone 2/19
Jordan 1/39
Rashid 0/37

Top bowler wins/matches
Jordan 6 4t/38
Rashid 5 8t/34
Moeen 1 1t/25

Markram stands out

Aiden Markram was not selected for the first match. It was a decision which defeied belief in the absence of any injury news.

One would expect him to return to the XI, potentially at the expense of Rilee Rossouw who batted at No 3. Rossouw has made hay at Taunton this summer but should never be consider a better option than a man who has dominated in terms of strike rate and average for South Africa in the last two years, particularly first down. Rossouw is a finisher.

For top bat, Markram is value again even though he has been cut to 9/2. He wins 47% of the time in the last two years. It's a bet on win rate. it's a bet on batting order. Markram is 11/1 for man of the match and should be priced at 8s for top match bat. Bet the Sportsbook markets here

Top South Africa bat wins/matches last two years
Markram 8/17
QDK 5/20
RVD 5/23
Miller 2/22
Klaasen 2/21

Top South Africa bowler wins/matches last two years
Rabada 2 2t/21
Shamsi 4 5t/30
Nortje 2 3t/17
Ngidi 4 t/14
Phelukawayo 1/9
Pretorius 3 2t/16
t=tie