England v Pakistan T20 World Cup Tips: Pakistan value at wet MCG

• Pakistan aces are underated
• Bet on outright not match odds
• Moeen and Afridi value calls
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England v Pakistan
Sunday 13 November, 08:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

England have doubts over Dawid Malan and Mark Wood. Both missed the semi-final. Wood's express pace and wicket-taking threat is of the more significance.

If the pair are ruled out it would make a title success all the more remarkable. First-choice picks like Jonny Bairstow and Jofra Archer are perhaps forgotten men at this stage but England could win a World Cup with a second string

Probable XI: Buttler, Hales, Salt, Stokes, Brook, Moeen, Livingstone, S Curran, Woakes, Jordan, Rashid

It is no coincidence that Pakistan's fine form has coincided with Shaheen Shah Afridi returning to his best. Pakistan looked shaky at the outset, Afridi likewise. There has been no stopping both since he fully recovered from his knee injury.

Afridi has nine for 60 in his last three games. It's form that - if Pakistan win - should notch him the player of the tournament gong.

With the bat Mohammad Rizwan has clicked into gear with three top-bat wins. Babar Azam, crucially, looked a million bucks against the Kiwis in the semi.

Probable XI: Rizwan, Babar, Haris, Masood, Iftikhar, Shadab, Nawaz, Wasim, Afridi, Rauf, Naseem

Pitch report

Of the last 23 at the MCG 12 first-innings have seen scores of 160 or more and 13 of those were won by the side batting first. It's a venue where both teams suffered harrowing losses - Pakistan to India and England to Ireland.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology's grim weather prediction is" 100% chance of rain with 10-20mm expected including the chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe with heavy falls."

With that in mind, bowlers really should be to the fore. And with overs likely to be reduced - even with a reserve day - this looks like an unders play on the par line.

Likewise the sixes line at under 10.5 with Sportsbook. Historically even without weather there's a significant trend for that winning. We need a minimum 16 overs for both innings for bets to stand.

How to play

The weather could washout two days' worth of play. It's that bad. So before analysis about strengths and weaknesses of the two teams, punters need to be playing on the outright market rather than the match odds.

In the event of the match being abandoned without a ball bowled (we need ten overs for a contest), the title will be shared meaning dead heat rules apply. England are 1.684/6 and Pakistan 2.447/5.

The latter looks the value call. Conditions should be a leveller if you believe there is such a gulf that exists. We don't happen to believe that is the case.

This is the best bowling attack against an England unit which is doing just enough with bat and ball. A lesson of the format down the years is that crack bowling units are underrated at peril.

England's brilliant fast-start against India is going to be harder to replicate with Afridi steaming in. Pakistan will hope to bowl first and chase at 8.5 an over.

Tops value

The Sportsbook tops market is thrown out of whack somewhat by weather worries. Openers for top runscorer are obviously tempting because of the likelihood of losing overs. Jos Buttler is 11/5 and Alex Hales is 5/2. For Pakistan Rizwan, who wins at odds-on rates, is 9/4 and Babar 11/4.

The standout value could again be Moeen Ali at 19/1. He wins closer to 9/2 and it is possible that he could be promoted up the order in the search for fast runs. The likes of Ben Stokes or Malan (if he plays) could be held back. Bets are void unless a minimum of ten overs is bowled in the innings you've wagered on.

Afridi is 11/4 for top Pakistan bowler (15 overs minimum required) and if we had to go for a man of the match pick the 11/1 fits the bill.