England v India First ODI Tips: Batters to dominate in game one

England v India
Tuesday 12 July, 13:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

England bowling worries

Just one day after the T20 series ended - and two games in two days - England are back at it, swapping red shirts for blue. It's a bonkers schedule.

But they are boosted by the return of the big boys. Ben Stokes, Joe Root and Jonny Bairstow are named in the squad. One would expect them to play.

In the final T20 Jos Buttler got his first win as permanent captain and he will be mighty relieved that his batters found confidence restored. Significant worries about the bowling group remain, however.

It's very much a second string. There is no Adil Rashid, of course, so Matt Parkinson is the spinner. Three from four of David Willey, Reece Topley, Brydon Carse and Sam Curran look like cannon fodder. England could get rid of one of those and play an extra batter with Stokes, Moeen Ali and Liam Livingstone available for overs.

Probable XI: Bairstow, Roy, Root, Buttler, Livingstone, Stokes, Moeen, S Curran, Willey, Carse, Parkinson

India need sixth bowler

India left out Hardik Pandya from the final T20 line-up. Perhaps it was to give him some time off ahead of the ODI leg. His absence may have served as a warning as to what happens when the pick only five bowling options after they conceded 217.

Even with Hardik, India are struggling for six options here. To make room for an extra bowler they could open with Rishabh Pant (he did it against West Indies this year) with Shikhar Dhawan missing out.

That would free up room for two from Prasidh Krishna, Arshdeep Singh, Mohammad Siraj and Mohammad Shami.

With the bat they are as bristle as ever. Ravi Jadeja at potentially No 8 is extraordinary depth, whilst Suryakumar Yadav's sensational blasting in the final T20 suggests they will put him in ahead of Shreyas Iyer at No 4. Virat Kohli is under the microscope but he is their top runscorer in the format in the last three years.

Possible XI: Rohit, Dhawan, Kohli, Iyer, Yadav, Pant, Hardik, Jadeja, Thakur, Shami, Chahal

Pitch report

The Oval has a reputation for runscoring and that much is true if we filter strike rates for all of England's home venues in the last five years which have hosted five games or more. The Kennington is the second-best with a strike rate of 93. Trent Bridge is top with 106.

In the last five years there have been eight completed ODIs played at the venue; five of those first-innings have seen 300 busted. In county cricket last season, however, the batters struggled. The first digs were recorded as: 242-268-220-241.

One has a suspicion that a lack of preparation time assists batters rather than bowlers. Do teams really have the time to prepare plans and practise them with just one day of net time?

Keep eyes peeled for Sportsbook prices for both teams to go 270 or more at around 10/11. Bet the market here. Alternatively going over 280 first-innings runs at around 2.001/1 is slightly less risky. Bet the market here.

Ranked Outsiders

England are outsiders for this one at 2.0811/10. It's rare that current world champions are not odds-on to win a match on home soil. India are 1.9010/11.

It's very close to a pick 'em affair. And we would expect the toss to be important. Whoever bats first should be trading comfortably odds-on at the break if we're right about The Oval surface living up to its reputation.

Much of the data points to a runfest. England's cumulative strike rate of 99 is the best in the world in the last three years.

Only India can come close to catching them on 96, whilst their bowling economy is eyewatering at 5.9. With this mob, England may not be far behind.

Tops value

Buttler has been boosted to 3/1 for top England bat. It's a mean price because he is very unlikely to be opening the batting. Bairstow at 9/2 catches the eye. Fellow Yorkshireman Joe Root is 10/3 and Stokes comes in at a whopping 7s. In his World Cup heyday we'd have been all over that.

For India, Yadav's form could carry over. He is priced at 9/2, with Kohli at 10/3. Pant is 7/1 and it's not a bad gamble if we're right about him opening.

Man of the match prices which stick out are Jonny Bairstow at 8s and the irrepressible Hardik at 12s.