Ireland v England First T20: Young underrated for wickets at 3s

• England have sent strong squad

• Weather forecast is good
• Ireland missing two key men

• Pitch should be for batters

• Bowler Young has good win rate

Ireland v England
Wednesday 17 September, 13.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Ireland v England First T20 team news

Ireland have been dealt a triple injury blow with bowlers Mark Adair, Josh Little and Fionn Hand all injured. Mark Adair and Little are significant players and they are likely to leave holes which can't be filled.

The hosts have moved on from Andy Balbirnie so Ross Adair, brother of Mark, will be charged with fast starts. He has a T20 ton against South Africa. Paul Stirling should open alongside him although his returns are on the wane. Wicketkeeper-batsman Ben Calitz could make his debut and be used as a finisher.

In the middle-order Harry Tector, Lorcan Tucker and Curtis Campher could frustrate England. Craig Young is dangerous with the ball and he should lead a pace-heavy bowling unit. 

Probable Ireland XI: Ross Adair, Stirling, Tector, Tucker, Campher, Dockrell, Calitz, Delany, McCarthy, Young, Hume

England have picked a strong squad for the last hurrah of the summer although Jacob Bethell will lead. Quite what Bethell has done to deserve such an honour is anyone's guess but England seem obsessed with over-promoting him.

It's a shame they're less keen to advance Rehan Ahmed's career. He hasn't featured yet for England this season. Another snub here would be hard to take for an all-rounder who was one of the few players who starred in The Hundred.

At some stage the visitors may rest key players. It would be a surprise if Jofra Archer, Phil Salt and Jos Buttler played all three for example. Saqib Mahmood has been ruled out with Scott Currie called up. Sonny Baker probably gets a game early on, though. 

Possible England XI: Salt, Buttler, Bethell, Brook, Banton, Jacks, S Curran, Dawson, Archer,  Rashid, L Wood

Ireland v England First T20 pitch report

The good news (at the moment) is that the weather forecast for Dublin is good. No rain is expected during the match hours. An  early-morning shower or several could have added juice to the surface, though.

At Malahide the wicket has generally been pretty good for batting. The first innings average in the last 10 is 176 and there is no toss bias. The average number of sixes per game in that study period is 14.6, which is bang on the Sportsbook line.

In 2022, India made 225 and only won by five runs. A year later they posted 185. It wouldn't be surprised if we saw a very high first-innings runs line for England batting first. Recency bias could be in play following their monster and record-breaking score against South Africa. It might be possible to go under around 210 or 215 at even money on the Exchange. 

Ireland v England First T20 match prediction

Hopes of a skeletal-priced favourite being downed in this game seem forlorn. Of course we'd love to make a case for the Irish bloodying the nose of their rivals from across the water at around 13.012/1 but those injuries are bad news. We really need an outsider to be at full-strength.

A dodgy pitch wouldn't go amiss, either. Offering a flat one against England running the risk of losing the toss is not a great idea. Something green and seamy under overcast skies is required.

In the absence of key players and such a surface, England at 6/42.50 to win the match with both teams making 160 may be of interest. The issue with the bet is whether Ireland can be trusted to get up to that mark. In their last six against the elite, they have managed to bust that score in five of them.

Ireland v England First T20 player bets

Buttler has a 38% win rate in all T20i from (and including) the last World Cup. He didn't win in the two games against South Africa with not enough overs voiding the voucher in the first game and then being denied by Phil Salt's assault in game two. He is 9/43.25. We might swerve top bat but a smarter option may be a fifty at 6/42.50. 

For Ireland we are keen on Craig Young. He is a reliable winner on top bowler in the last two years with a hit rate of 30%. Sportsbook offer 3/14.00, which is implied probability of 25%. That includes matches when Adair and Little were playing so Young should be bang at it. With the bat Mark Delany is a big-priced player who is overrated at 14s. Stirling has not won in 18.

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