Cricket Betting Tips: In-play angles after day three of England v India

Ed Hawkins
03 July 2022

Pujara is a road block to England's chances

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Ed Hawkins gets the calculator to work out how many india will get, how many overs they need for ten wickets and when the Test will end

"Away from home in the last three years in fourth innings they averaged a wicket every nine overs at an economy of 2.9"

How do India win it?

Three days played at Edgbaston and in terms of days won, India are three-zip up and cruising. It's quite the performance from a team who came into the re-arranged clash with minimal game time in the conditions.

India are now as short as 1.422/5 with England 6.4011/2 and the draw 7.206/1. Jasprit Bumrah, the stand-in skipper, must be reckoning that captaincy for bowlers should be the way forward. He's found it all very easy. Bet the match odds here.

England require not just their seemingly obligatory comeback with the bat, but with the ball. It is the latter that few will have faith in. England have been unable to build pressure or get the seam and swing required to make India feel as if they're a long way from home.

One can never truly rule out England with their attacking intent, but India appear to have the perfect pair at the crease to take the Test away from the home team in the first session; Cheteshwar Pujara's obduracy and Rishabh Pant's cavalier hitting can infuriate England.

The lead is now 257. Thirty minutes of Pant on day four could well be the game. So we're in the position of trying to work out how many India will get and how many overs they may need to take 10 England wickets
A study of their third-innings average away from home is to glimpse the sublime and the ridiculous. The former is their 446 at The Oval last summer. The latter is the 36 all out against Australia in 2020.

By excluding those totals at the top and bottom of the spectrum, we come up with a useful average total of 200. That means India are looking at around a lead of 330-odd. Given their position, they would probably be disappointed with that.

Sportsbook certainly expect more. They pitch their runs at over/under 313.5. That would be their fourth-highest total in five years in the third dig on the road. It begins to feel like a short. Bet the Sportsbook odds here.

With the ball, India will be aware of their capabilities. Away from home in the last three years in fourth innings they averaged a wicket every nine overs at an economy of 2.9. That last number gives them a decent comfort zone with England's aggression machine.

If we filter the three-man pace attack of Bumrah, Mohammad Shami and Mohammed Siraj in the fourth innings way from home (three matches), India average a wicket every eight overs with an economy rate of 2.7.

These numbers are useful when considering the Test Match End market if some liquidity turns up. It appears we're on four a day five afternoon session finish. There is no more forecast rain.