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Caribbean Premier League Tips Games 24 & 25: History is against batters

Ed Hawkins
20 September 2022
2:30 min read

Shakib has signed for Guyana

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Ed Hawkins previews Barbados Royals v St Kitts & Nevis Patriots and Guyana Amazon Warriors v Jamaica Tallwahs from Providence on Wednesday and Thursday

"Tallawahs are the tightest bowling unit in the tournament and Guyana have a run rate of just 7.1"

(1pt) Back under 155.5 Guyana 1st inns runs 2.001/1

Barbados Royals v St Kitts and Nevis Patriots
Wednesday 21 September, 15:00
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

Royals will finish top. But there is no doubt intensity has dropped since they secured qualification. They were lucky against a chaotic Guyana last time. Devon Thomas comes in for the departed David Miller.
Probable XI: Cornwall, Mayers, Bosch, Thomas, Holder, Mujeeb, Walsh, McCoy, Simmonds

Patriots have to win their last two matches to stand any chance of progressing. They have retained South Africans Dewald Brevis and Duan Jansen but not Dwaine Pretorius.
Probable XI: Fletcher, Lewis, Brevis, Darren Bravo, Rutherford, Dwayne Bravo, Rashid Khan, Duan Jansen, Cottrell, Akila, Carmichael

Pitch report

The tournament moves to Providence, Guyana for the denouement. Twleve of the 32 CPL matches played at the venue have produced scores of 150 or more so this has an unners trend. Run rates have been low - in 2018 it was 7.4 and in 2019 it was seven. Bet the runs here. We may be able to go udner 155.5 at even money on the par line.

How to play

Royals may suffer for playing fast and loose with professionalism. They have been slapdash. Patriots may want it more. The match odds agree. Patriots are no better than 2.0421/20, a strong show that Royals aren't worthy of support here. Bet the match odds here.

Tops value

Thomas is 22s with Sportsbook for top Royals bat. it is possible he could be asked to bat at No 5. Andre Fletcher has been boosted to 5/2 for Patriots. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

Guyana Amazon Warriors v Jamaica Tallawahs
Thursday 22 September, 10:00
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

Guyana may need to win all four remaining games to make the play-offs. Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Shakib-al-Hasan are in. Tabraiz Shamsi is back in South Africa.
Possible XI: Stirling, Hemraj, Gurbaz, Blackwood, Hetmyer, Shakib-al-Hasan, Paul, Shepherd, Smith, Sinclair

Mohammad Nabi has joined Tallawahs for the final throes and he could replace Chris Green. Nabi's superior batting probably makes them stronger.
Possible XI: King, Jangoo, Brooks, Powell, Reifer, Imad, Allen Nabi, M Pretorius, Amir, Gordon

Pitch report

The probability of low runs is discussed above. If Guyana bat first we're keen to go low. Tallawahs are the tightest bowling unit in the tournament and Guyana have a run rate of just 7.1. Go unders the par line in the 150s.

How to play

Tallawahs are 1.875/6 favourites. That's about right. If they bowl first we expect around 1.351/3 at the break so there's a trade on the cards. We're going for all greens now rather than letting bets runs.

Tops value

Shakib gets an 11/2 quote for Guyana bat with Sportsbook. We always point out Odean Smith and Romario Shepherd at big prices - 17s and 19s respectively. Bet the odds here.

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(1pt) Back under 155.5 Guyana 1st inns runs 2.001/1

Ed Hawkins P-L

2022: -7.65
2021: +29.41pts
2020: +5.91pts
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pt

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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