Bangladesh v India T20 World Cup Tips: Kohli underrated for top bat

• Adelaide pitch should be run heavy
• Kohli has win rate on side
• Afif a steal at 7/1

Bangladesh v India
Wednesday 2 November, 08.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Bangladesh are a motley bunch who have somehow managed to cobble together wins against the Netherlands and Zimbabwe. If there's any justice they should get absolutely hammered here.

Shakib-al-Hasan looks to have checked out and there could be even further decline over the next couple of years. At least Taskin Ahmed is having a good season and he deserves franchise rewards instead of the disappointing Mustafizur.

Probable XI: Shanto, Sarkar, Shakib, Das, Afif, Yasir, Mosaddek, Taskin, Mustafizur, Hasan

India are in the semis barring a spectacular collapse. They should keep their foot down here and the inclusion of Deepak Hooda in their defeat by South Africa is decent for balance.

They are probably the most confusing of all the teams so far. Lucky against Pakistan, subdued by Netherlands and their batting blown away by South Africa, they could be flattering to deceive.

Probable XI: Rahul, Rohit, Kohli, Yadav, Hardik, Hooda, Karthik, Axar, Ashwin, Shami, Arshdeep

Pitch report

Adelaide has been decent for batting in the last 20 matches. Eleven of those have seen first-innings scores of 160 or more. Importantly, there is a toss bias with fourteen of those won by the team batting first. If India were to bat first they should threaten 190 which should be available around 3.002/1.

How to play

These sides have met 11 times down the years and India have slipped up once. So with Bangladesh at the 6.005/1 mark we can be forgiven for not wanting to play.

And that's a rare call because we always want a toss bias on our side if we're opposing a heavy favoiurite. But Bangladesh are so bad that they really should be beaten out of sight.

Sportsbook go 9/1 that India win by ten wickets or 90 runs plus and 17/2 8/71-80. Obviously we're pinning our hopes on the toss going their way with the first price but Indian dominance in the chase doesn't make it too bad if they bowl first.

Pitch report

Only Virat Kohli is value on the top India bat market here after the loophole on Suryakumar Yadav is closing up. At a boosted 10/3 Sportsbook say Kohli has a 23.1% chance. On win rate it's 32% (last two years). Yadav, a 6/1 winner against the Saffers, is into 7/2 (22.2%) offering less than five point on implied probability versus win rate.

For Bangladesh Afif Hossein has good enough returns to make the 7/1 of interest. Arshdeep Singh has returned 50% of the time for top bowler in his short international career and is 3/1 jolly.