Bangladesh v England Third ODI Tips: Keep faith with Mahmudullah

Ed Hawkins
05 March 2023
2:30 min read

Roy is boosted to 4/1 for top England bat

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Ed Hawkins previews the dead rubber ODI in Chattogram on Monday and finds a 9/1 wager...

Bangladesh v England
Monday 6 March, 06:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Bangladesh's use of only five bowlers in game two in Mirpur hurt them. It was slightly odd as Afif Hossein and Mahmudullah could have been asked to stem the flow.

If Afif can't be trusted they may need to look elsewhere. But the only option in the squad is Ebadot Hossain and he's is certainly no all-rounder.

Possible XI: Tamim, Das, Shanto, Shakib, Mushfiqur, Mahmudullah, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Taskin, Taijul, Ebadot, Mustafizur

With the series won England should make changes. That means Reece Topley would be very unfortunate not to get a game as part of a pace rotation policy. Mar Wood is likely to be rested.

It may also be time to have a look at Rehan Ahmed in these conditions. England may need two specialist spinners in the World Cup.

Phil Salt and James Vince have failed to grasp their opportunity in the absence of Ben Duckett, Joe Root and Jonny Bairstow.

Possible XI: Roy, Salt, Malan, Vince, Buttler, Moeen, S Curran, Ahmed, Woakes, Saqib/Archer, Topley

Pitch report

India made 409 batting first on this ground in December. Are the slow and low Mirpur surface a track of the past, then? Well, it was only the fifth time in14 that more than 250 was busted so it's no guarantee.

The average run rate in the last five years is 5.3. Shorting Bangladesh runs on the par line may still be wise.

How to play

Four of the last six at this venue have been won by the chaser under lights and eight from 13 all-time. That's a pretty chunky bias.

Any bet on Bangladesh at 3.052/1 would surely have to be accompanied by them batting second.

England to win and both teams to score more than 225 at 10/11 may be a more plausible option.

Tops value

Mahmudullah has been our man twice for top Bang bat. Each time he has drifted. He probably should have nothced in game two. At 9/1 we're happy to risk him again, cosseted by the knowledge he wisn more often that the odds suggest.

Salt's runs are available to short at 30.5. He has passed that mark only twice in his last ten in all formats. But do bear in mind that his record suggests he's a decent player of spin. Centurion Jason Roy is boosted to 4/1 for top England bat but he's struggled to put scores back-to-back in the last three years.

Sam Curran is once again underrated at 4/1 for top England bowler. Failing to win with four wickets last time sticks in the craw.

Back Mahmudullah top Bangladesh bat

9/1

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