Australia v West Indies First t20 Tips: 17/1 & 45/1 top bat picks

Australia v West Indies
Wednesday 05 October, 09:10
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

Marcus Stoinis remains on the sidelines with injury and the all-rounder will justifiably feel nervous about missing out on the World Cup. The Aussies are very keen to get Cameron Green into the squad after a surprisingly strong show as opener against India.

Green is included here but where he bats with David Warner returning will be interesting. Could Green force Australia's hand on Steve Smith, who remains problematic because he is still viewed as too big a name to drop?

Aaron Finch could bat at No 3 with Green opening with Warner. It could be a choice between Smith and an extra bowling option in the form of Daniel Sams.

If Smith does play it just delays the arrival of game changers like Glenn Maxwell, Tim David and Matthew Wade. Australia still have plenty of time to solve the issue during the World Cup, though. It's unlikely to cost them qualification from their group.

Possible XI: Warner, Green, Finch, Smith, Maxwell, David, Wade, Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood, Zampa

West Indies World T20 camapign can already be classed as chaotic. Shimron Hetmyer has been axed from the squad after he did not board his flight to Australia. Shamarh Brooks is his replacement but he won't arrive in time for either of the two matches in this series.

The Windies have some big calls to make. Brandon King, Evin Lewis and Johnson Charles are vying for the two opener slots. Do they really risk Odean Smith as a bowling option or promote him as a proper batter?

One suspects Kyle Mayers' all-round abilities suddenly make him an MVP. Nic Pooran, as skip, needs to improve in all areas and there's no guarantee smart calls are made.

Possible XI: E Lewis, Charles, Mayers, Pooran, Powell, Smith, Holder, Akeal, Joseph, McCoy, Cottrell

Pitch report

There have been Carrara ten games in the last two years at Carrara. Just three of those were won by the side batting first. Runscoring has been tricky.

The average run rate in the Big Mash matches in the last three season is 7.8. One suspects the Windies are a short on innings runs, then, if they bat first. There could be cheap lays for 130 or 140. Bet the market here.

How to play

West Indies have lost eight of their last 26 T20s. Two of those wins cam against a hopeless Bangaldesh team. Clearly backing them to win the game and letting it run at 4.707/2 is fraught.

Likewise a trade if they were to bat first given the pitch report. So the shrewdest move is to bet them to either take quick wickets bowling first or be tight with the ball.

Up front they can do the former with Sheldon Cottrell who is an out-and-out wicket-taker. At the death, Jason Holder and Obed McCoy can keep things reasonably tight.

There's no guarantee West indies get thsoe combos right or that they perform with the ball but that's why it's called a gamble. Bet the match odds here

Tops value

We go to the well again for lower-order option on West Indies top bat considering the possibility it could be low-scoring.

Smith, Jason Holder and Akeal Hosein all look underrated at 45/1, 17s and 100/1 respectively. For Australia Green is 9/2 and could open. Warner has been boosted to 12/5.