Afghanistan v Sri Lanka T20 World Cup Tips: Afghans can sense first win

• Gabba surface may be tricky
• Afghans have head-to-head form
• Gurbaz a fancy at 4/1

Afghanistan v Sri Lanka
Tuesday 1 November, 04:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Afghanistan are in must-win territory if they are to retain slim semi hopes. Not that it's their fault. They have had two washouts against New Zealand and Ireland.

When they did get on the field their batting flopped against England. But they gave England a scare which wasn't heeded for their subsequent meeting against Ireland. We would prefer Naveen back in as a death bowler instead of the untested Fareed.

Probable XI: Zazai, Gurbaz, Zadran, Ghani, Najibullah, Nabi, Omarzai, Rashid, Mujeeb, Fareed, Farooqi

Sri Lanka should have beaten New Zealand. But their fielding let them down chronically. At 15 for three the Kiwis were in the mire. Cue Keystone Cops fielding.

They are not at their strongest, so oner shouldn't be too harsh. Gunathilaka, Nibura Fernando and Madushan have all picked up injuries.

Probable XI: Nissanka, Kusal, Dhananjaya, Asalanka, Rajapaksa, Karunarate, Shanaka, Hasaranga, Theekshana, Lahiru

Pitch report

Nine of the last 21 games at the venue have seen first-innings score of 160 or more (Before Australia-Ireland). Ten were won by the side batting second. Bangladesh made 150 against a strong Zimbabwe bowling unit. Neither batting unit instil faith in going over a par line in the high 150s. It may be that a lay of 150 on the innings runs in first dig is a play.

How to play

Afghanistan are 2.6813/8 with Sri Lanka 1.594/7. The pair have met only three times in T20, with Sri Lanka winning twice.

That Afghan win came in the UAE in August in the Asia Cup. We take it with a pinch of salt because of the toss bias but it does provide a clue. Afghanistan are a chasing team and should only be supported if the flip goes their way. They can flip the odds at least.

Tops value

Rahmanullah Gurbaz has 124 runs in his two knocks against Sri Lanka so Sportsbook's 4/1 that he tops for his team will go down well. Pathun Nissanka has been boosted to 11/4 for Sri Lanka. Wanindu Hasaranga, clinging on for top bowlr at the moment, is Sri Lanka's go-to player and is 7s for man of the match.