Afghanistan v New Zealand T20 World Cup Tips: Afghans could be rolled again

• Melbourne pitch should help Kiwis
• Boult style could trouble Afghans
• Exploit Zazai record

Afghanistan v New Zealand
Wednesday 25 September, 09:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

New Zealand are the big mover in the outright market in a positive sense. And they could get stronger if they had the guts to replace Kane Williamson with Daryl Mitchell once the batter is fit again. More likely, though, they drop Mark Chapman.

They smashed Australia in game one and have a chance for another comprehensive win to bolster further their net run rate.

Probable XI: Allen, Conway, Williamson, Phillips, Chapman, Neesham, Santner, Sodhi, Southee, Ferguson, Boult

Afghanistan were bowled out for 112 against England in Perth and their batting is expected to be an issue throughout the tournament. They have little in the squad to change that.

They might be taking a risk with their bowling combination, too. It was a surprise to see death bowler Naveen replaced with the largely unproved Fareed.

Probable XI: Zazai, Gurbaz, Zadran, Ghani, Najibullah, Nabi, Omarzai, Rashid, Mujeeb, Fareed, Farooqi

Pitch report

In the last 21 games at the MCG, 11 first-innings have busted 160 or more and ten have been won by the side batting second. It looked a quick pitch for India-Pakistan. Shorting Afghan runs, then, if they bat first at 120 and 130 could be a cheap lay.

How to play

New Zealand are 1.232/9 with Afghanistan 5.104/1. It's hard to argue that those prices aren't about right. We might disagree if there had been strong evidence that the 'G was a slow, low turner to assist Afghanistan's army of spinners but that doesn't appear to be the case.

Tops value

Devon Conway has been boosted to 16/5 for top Kiwi bat. Only Mohammad Rizwan has a better runs per innings mark than Conway in the last 12 months. We're consistently keen on Najibullah Zadran at 11/2 for most Afghan runs.

Consdiering Sam Curran's southpaw style knocked over Afghanistan in Perth Trent Boult is a fancy at 10/1 for man of the match.

There's also a chunk of evidence that the 10/11 on Hazratullah going under 17.5 runs is a wager. In 11 innings against the established nations that's been a winner seven times.