Ed Hawkins previews the action from the Sheikh Zayed Stadium and urges punters not to be afraid of big prices...
"Six games in and no side has yet managed to win batting first. That's a toss bias that could become very difficult to ignore, particularly as we understand the reason behind it"
Abu Dhabi T10 Match Day Three
TV: live on Sky Sports
Six games in and no side has yet managed to win batting first. That's a toss bias that could become very difficult to ignore, particularly as we understand the reason behind it. T10 is a format which fosters apprehension about what a good score is batting first. It is far easier to cut loose and go hell for leather when you know the target.
For that reason, you might be surprised there is such a gulf in odds for this contest. Bangla are 1.558/15 and Maratha 2.6813/8.
We understand why the odds are the way they are because of personnel but as we have said before you only need one batsman to come off to win a game. Arabians' recruitment has been terrible but Abdul Shakoor, Laurie Evans and Mohammad Hafeez have potential to change a game. We're not sure what's happened to Shaoib Malik, though.
We are clear that Arabians bowling is bang average and we would expect them to be even bigger at the break. We might book in a bet at 3.2011/5.
Chris Gayle made a disappointing start to his campaign on Friday with just four off three balls in defeat by Deccan. And it was a surprise to see a strong top four suffer. Luke Wright, Ben Duckett and Joe Clarke should make mincemeat of these attacks.
However, we are most interested in what an outfit can do with the ball and Team Abu Dhabi were found wanting here when trying to defend 96. They never got a foothold with four pacers spraying it around.
Qalandars chased 107 with nine wickets in the hutch and they have a simar make-up to TAD. They have gone for a strong top four with Tom Banton, Sharjeel Khan, Asif Ali and Ben Dunk as powerful as anybody. But perhaps they have an edge when it comes to the death nous of Sohail Tanvir and Chris Jordan. At 1.834/5 favourites, however, you would want that early toss bias on side. TAD are 2.1011/10.
The Warriors were pre-tournament favourites and they have already disgraced themselves, losing to the Arabians when skinny favourites pre-game and then even shorter at the break. They failed to defend 128.
There is nowt wrong with their batting. Brandon King, Lendl Simmons, Nic Pooran and Rovman Powell would not look out of place at the highest level. But what about their smarts with the ball. Wayne Parnell? Klaxon. Wahab Riaz? Klaxon. At least Fabian Allen did a job - his two overs costing only 11. That shows how bad the rest were.
Delhi Bulls are two from two and chased 89 against Arabians with five overs to spare. Yes, five. We'd be happy to be on them in a chase if the market struggles to split the pair.
Average score bating first 108
Matches won batting first 0/6
Highest chase 129
Teams score 110 or more 2/6
Won by favourites 4/6
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end