Ireland v South Africa Second ODI Tips: Top-bat bets at 9/2 and 5/1

Friday 4 October 12:30
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Ireland v South Africa Second ODI team news

Ireland were well-beaten in game one by 139 runs. I's a margin of defeat which doesn't quite tell the full story, however.

Their bowlers did superbly to haul South Africa back from 191 for three to just 271. It was the batting let them down badly. Being rolled for 132 means they may have to make a difficult decision about balance.

George Dockrell may have to turn his arm over, something he is rarely asked to do these days after a loss of confidence, to find room for an extra batter. That should be Lorcan Tucker, who was a surprising omission from the first match. Leggie Gavin Hoey, who was attacked on debut, may have to miss out.

Ireland possible XI: Balbirnie, Stirling, Campher, Tector, Tucker, Doheny, Dockrell, M Adair, McBrine, Hume, Young

South Africa will be content with victory. Their batting collapse will be considered a minor issue at this stage with small tweaks expected to improve their performance over the series.

Their balance isn't perfect. Wiaan Mulder, Andile Phehlukwayo and Bjorn Fortuin at Nos 6-8 would be considered a soft underbelly against an established side but they probably figure they can get away with it against Ireland.

Phehlukwayo, surprisingly, didn't bowl so if he has an injury they may just go with the five bowlers that did the job and find room for an extra batter like Jason Smith.

South Africa probable XI: Bavuma, De Zorzi, Rickleton, van der Dussen, Stubbs, Verreynne, Mulder, Phehlukwayo, Fortuin, Burger, Ngidi

Ireland v South Africa Second ODI pitch report

South Africa's 271 was entirely in keeping with the ground trend. There had been five ODI played at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in the last five years previously. The highest first-innings score was Afghanistan's 287 against Ireland in 2021. We don't expect a run glut. We're eyeing South Africa runs to short at 300 and Ireland at 260. The Irish average 226 in first-innings against top eight sides in matches since 2020. We would expect to get close to even money to lay.

Ireland v South Africa Second ODI match prediction

Ireland have shifted out to only 4.1031/10 post the first match. It is reasonable to be a little irked that the market hasn't moved a bit more.

It is hard, therefore, to argue that the odds are wrong. Which is what this game is all about after all.

Ireland may need some wear and tear in the surfaces to get a foothold and it could be that they are only worth revisiting for the third game when South Africa, 2-0 up, may be thinking of home.

A route to a trade may require Ireland batting first and getting up to that 250 mark. And then hoping spin, a slow surface and scoreboard pressure gets them in the game.

Ireland v South Africa Second ODI player bets

We keep faith with Curtis Campher and Temba Bavuma for top Ireland and SA bat respectively. Campher is winning at 25% in two years so Sportsbook's 5/16.00 is good. Bavuma has been cut to 9/25.50 but he wins at a rate of 22%. That's more than four points in our favour on implied probability. Bavuma is a class act in this format and is unheralded.

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