Guyana Amazon Warriors v St Lucia Kings CPL Final Tips: Kings closer than odds suggest

Monday 7 October 00:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

Guyana Amazon Warriors v St Lucia Kings team news

Moeen Ali was the eighth different opening batter used by Guyana in 12 matches this season in their qualifier win over Barbados Royals. It's anyone's guess as to whether his 44 from 35 is good enough to keep the job. Azam Khan, who was striking it well, seems to have disappeared. Of potential openers who have yet to have a go, only Romario Shepherd and Dwaine Pretorius would make sense. Pacer Shamar Joseph and spinner Kevin Sinclair battle for the final spot in the XI.

Possible Guyana XI: Gurbaz, Moeen, Hope, Hetmyer, Ali, Shepherd, Reifer, Paul, Pretorius, Motie, Shamar, Tahir

Kings had been a settled team until their win over Guyana in the first qualifier. But Matthew Forde and Johann Jermiah suddenly came in at the expense of Aaron Jones and Sadrack Descarte. Jeremiah, an offie, made his debut. Kings are reliant on runs up front from Faf Du Plessis and Johnson Charles. Ackeem Auguste will most likely drop out of the top six if those two get off to a fast start.

Possible Kings XI: Du PLessis, Charles, Chase, Auguste, Seifert, Wiese, Forde, Jeremiah, Joseph, Pierre, Noor

Guyana Amazon Warriors v Barbados Royals pitch report

Royals posted 148 to go out at the hands of Guyana. Kings posted 198 to down Guyana before that, following on from first-dig scores of 168, 211, 207 and 219. The previous four (in the same season) recorded scores of 162, 135, 96 and 137.

It would be easy to reckon Royals got a pudding but Guyana chased inside 15 overs. The surfaces are a bit of a mystery so listen for past games clues. It should really be a totally fresh surface for a final. We will always have an itch to short a par line here, though.

Guyana Amazon Warriors v St Lucia Kings match prediction

It feels like the whole world is on Guyana for a victory which would gain them back-to-back titles. Their presence in the final at least justifies pre-tourny claims that the 4/15.00 price for the outright was wrong.

Whether they get the job done remains to be seen. The toss is key. Seven of the ten matches have been won by the side batting first as wickets have slowed up. There is unlikely to be any rain which would shorten a chase and make it easier for the side batting second.

Guyana's win over Royals puts them close to busting the 72% win rate mark at Providence. But if there's a side which knows how to win games here it is Kings. They did so to book their final spot. And of the four games Guyana have lost at home since 2023, two were to Kings. It does feel like a pick 'em affair because of conditions so if you missed the Guyana title wager Kings can be considered value at 2.1011/10. and if you are on a profit is guaranteed.

Guyana Amazon Warriors v St Lucia Kings player bets

Du Plessis, with an unbeaten 92 in the group head-to-head, has found form at the back end of the tournament and the 12/53.40 for a second top-bat win for Kings will be popular. Charles has been far more reliable in the market, however, and should be jolly instead of 11/43.75. For Warriors Sportsbook clearly don't expect Moeen to keep the opening gig as 5/16.00 looks big. Gudakesh Motie and Imran Tahir have caused problems for Kings in each of the three meetings. Man of the match bets on the duo at 14/115.00 the pair are not mug wagers.

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