Hawk Eye on England v Pakistan Second T20: Back in on Babar

Dawid Malan
Malan is solid at No 3
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2:30 min read

Ed Hawkins looks at the data to reveal the best side bets for game two from Old Trafford on Sunday...

"Pakistan would argue they are a classier bunch. They don't need brute force when they can caress the ball to the boundary. And this is proved by the number of fours they hit"

Balance of power

With the rain washing away the contest on Friday, we were denied the opportunity to see whether the gulf between these two sides was as big as the oddsmakers and exchange layers reckoned. As discussed in our match preview, we suspect they are evenly matched.

But one area where the gap is big is in power hitting. England have more muscle than Pakistan. And that's an understatement. In the last three years in T20 England have walloped 11 maximums. Pakistan have managed only 62. It's a chasm. So are Betfair Sportsbook short enough about England in the sixes match bet?

As discussed before, this column doesn't get any kicks from recommending 4/6 shots, and nor should it. But we're more than happy to point out that if taking short prices is your bag, fill your boots. It's not for everyone but the value mantra remains the same: if the price is wrong, bet it.

Broken down into a match average England hit 7.9 per match compared to Pakistan's measly 3.2. Although rain voided the market in game one, England had it in the bag after Tom Banton's had sent five sixes flying over the rope and Eoin Morgan one. Here's a reminder of how feeble Pakistan's batters are.

Sixes per match last 3 years
Morgan 1.7
Bairstow 1.4
Malan 1.8
Moeen 1
Banton 1.5 (4 games only)

Shoaib 1.1
Babar 0.5
Fakhar 0.6
Hafeez 1
Imad 0.1
Shadab 0.1
Iftikhar 0.5

Maybe feeble is unfair. Pakistan would argue they are a classier bunch. They don't need brute force when they can caress the ball to the boundary. And this is proved by the number of fours they hit. The gap melts away. Pakistan average 12.3 per game and England 14.9. This is a much closer contest and hints that Pakistan are value at 13/10 to hit more fours than England.

The market raises an interesting dichotomy. If one team is so powerful that they are 4/6 shots to win the sixes market, should they not be outsiders to hit most fours? After all, their big shots are more likely to clear the rope while the weaker team's efforts will bounce. The counter point is aggression. Are England more aggressive?

Don't be Rash

Adil Rashid has been knocked off favourite position for top England bowler by Chris Jordan. In terms of win rate, it is the right move.

Rashid featured as one of the most overrated T20 bowlers with an extraordinarily low win rate for a bowler of such skill and consistency. We say low win rate, non-existent might be better. He hasn't won for two years. But he does return just shy of half the time so the 3/1 may appeal for that reason. Jordan is 5/2. That is too skinny on win rate, even though he is one of the most nerveless death bowlers around.

Pakistan's Mohammad Amir is in to 11/4 for top bowler, which is just not quite there. He was unfortunate that he bowled only two overs before the rain came and that blank has pushed him out of the value zone.

We will, however, stick with Babar Azam and Dawid Malan for top bat honours. Babar has had his price boosted to 21/10. We rate him at 5/4. Malan is 4/1, a fine price for someone so consistent.

England last two years top bowler top bowler wins/matches

Jordan 4 3t/17
Rashid 7t/16
Malan t/7
Denly 1/6
T Curran 2 4t/12
Mahmood t/3

Ed Hawkins,

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