Caribbean Premier League Tips Matches 22 and 23: Warriors so strong at home

• Falcons fight underrated

• Royals desperate for the win

• Van der Dussen & Green boost

• Warriors win 68% of home games

• Strong record versus TKR 

Barbados Royals v Antigua & Barbuda Falcons
Saturday 6 September, 00.00
TV: Live on TNT

Barbados Royals v Antigua & Barbuda Falcons CPL Tips

The Royals were given a pep talk by Mark Henry, the world's strongest man, this week. It might have been a good idea to focus on matter over muscle, however as it is a weakness in between the ears that has seen them slide to four defeats out of four. Their one point came from a washout.

Against Falcons they face a team who have shown they can make up for the talent gap with durable and strong-minded performances. If it was purely about toughness, there is no way Royals should be as skinny as 1.664/6.

On Friday Royals were downed by Guyana. They batted first and on a fair-looking track could muster only 165. There were few alarms for Guyana in the chase. With five games left, Royals are in must-win territory to make the play-offs and it will be Falcons that they most likely have to catch. But two wins from their last two for Falcons will put the pressure on Royals to get in on run rate.

They have been boosted by the arrivals of Rassie van der Dussen and Chris Green. But this added further confusion to an unsettled batting line-up. It changes like the wind and with players being asked to perform different roles every game it surely impacts performance. Rovman Powell blasted well against Guyana but why is he coming in at No 7?

Up top Quinton de Kock is in the win zone and he is much more reliable on decent batting tracks. It is fair to go in on Sportsbook's 3/14.00 that he top scores for Royals.

Guyana Amazon Warriors v Trinbago Knight Riders
Sunday 7 September, 00:00
TV: Live on TNT

Guyana Amazon Warriors v Trinbago Knight Riders CPL Tips

Guyana and Trinbago clash in Providence in what could be a blockbuster contest. The head-to-heads between these two are often fascinating because, but for sliding door moments, one legacy could be the other.

GAW have one title to their name but could so easily have been the storied franchise that Trinbago have become. TKR have four titles, enviously eyed by a Warriors franchise which six times fell at the final hurdle.

That goes a long way to explaining why Trinbago are 1.748/11 favourites. That and a table which is telling a few porkies. Although Guyana are down in fourth, they boast a superior run rate to their rivals and have played three games fewer. If Guyana can take a scalp here they will reckon they are in a good position to break into the top two.

They will be delighted to be trying to do so on their home turf. This is a ground where they have a 68% win record in the CPL and it is a major advantage that the knockouts will be played on their home ground. On that basis alone the match odds are wrong for this one. Indeed, they have beaten Trinbago in six of the last eight meetings at the venue. We have to consider them to be strong value.

This will be the first match of the tournament to be played at Providence. What can we expect from the pitch? Well, it has been a changeable surface over the last few years and it wasn't so long ago that slow, low surfaces were a delight for spinners and batters approached it with dread. Unders was the play.

These days (the last 41), more than 160 in first-innings has been breached 59% of the time and expecting big runs is not a mug view. Of those games 15% have breached 200 or more in the first dig. We await the par line on the Exchange with interest and a total runs quote for both teams from Sportsbook. We should not be averse to playing overs at that mid 160 range.

Guyana like to chuck in a surprise opener every now and then. So Moeen Ali at 6s for top bat may be of interest. Trinbago appear to be without Mohammad Amir who suffered a nasty-looking groin injury. He missed the heavy defeat to St Lucia Kings last time out.

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