Ed Hawkins previews the Saturday action from the Caribbean T20 tournament with one side in danger of their season ending early...
"The toss bias remains and this is the key. Look at all those wins for the chaser - 13 from 19"
Barbados Tridents v Trinbago Knight Riders
Saturday 29 August 15:00
TV: live on Betfair Video
Tridents get it right
Barbados Tridents are back in the play-off mix after a crucial success over Jamaica Tallawahs. And there are signs they are beginning to understand how to get the best out of their squad.
Note that Rashid Khan was promoted to No 5 in that win and, although he failed by registering a duck, it is the intention that will please punters. Hayden Walsh, last year's top wicket-taker, finally bowled his full quota. That combined with eight overs of spin from Rashid and Mitchell Santner makes them a tricky proposition.
Possible XI Charles, Hope, Mayer, Holder, Rashid, Anderson, Nurse, Santner, Reifer, Young, Walsh.
Trinbago are five wins from five after hammering Guyana Amazon Warriors. As we have said before they are head and shoulders above the rest and now their greatest threat is complacency or the dreaded 'bad day at the office' in a knockout.
Against Guyana they strolled home by seven wickets after restricting their rivals to 112. What was most impressive was that they did it without Sunil Narine, who has now missed two matches in a row. In his absence Khary Pierre took three for 18 while they were also boosted by fluent runs from Tim Seifert.
Possible XI Simmons, Webster, Munro, DM Bravo, K Pollard, T Seifert, DJ Bravo, Raza, Pierre, Fawad, Khan
2020 TKR 185-3 (DM Bravo 54*, A Nurse 1-20) defended BT 166-6 (Charles 52, Narine 1-17)
2019 BT 160-6 (Charles 35, Pierre 2-25) defended TKR 148 (Reifer 2-13)
BT 135-3 (Charles 55, Deyal 1-17) chased TKR 134-8 (Sim-mons 61, Walsh 2-34)
BT 192-5 (Charles 58, Pierre 2-34) defended 129 (DM Bravo 28, Walsh 5-19)
Overall TKR 9 BT 7
The last 19 first-innings scores at the Queen's Park Oval (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second, most recent first) read: 112-2/110-2/148-1/111-2/108-2/151-2/134-2/185-1/167-2/191-1/152-1/180-1/170-1/203-1/223-2/195-1/158-2/152-2/156-2/147-2/118-2. That is an average of 159. Two low-scoring games on day eight lopped six runs off the average and we could now be seeing the impact of so many matches on one surface. The toss bias remains, though, and this is the key. Look at all those wins for the chaser - 13 from 19.
With the toss bias so heavy and Tridents spinners ready to roll on a slow surface, they could well trade as favourites for this one. There's nothing wrong taking a bit of the [2.42] if the toss goes their way.
We respect Trinbago but they are likely to come under pressure if they have to bat first with the Santner-Walsh-Rashid axis whirling away. If the toss goes their way, however, we will look for a jump to around the [1.70] mark and let it run. The weather is set fair so there should be no rain interruptions.
Johnson Charles has a fine record against TKR. These are his last five scores: 52/35/55/58/24. He is 11/4 with Sportsbook for top-bat honours.
Now Walsh is being utilised correctly it's worth pointing out the 3/1 is out of line with his win rate and he is value for top bowler. Rashid is 7/4.
Speaking of Rashid, on a slow surface with low scores is a No 5 a 30/1 chance? Probably not.
St Kitts & Nevis Patriots v Jamaica Tallawahs
Saturday 29 August 19:15
TV: live on Betfair Video
The Patriots' season is almost done. They are going to have to win four of their last five to get into the play-off picture but following their atrocious effort against the Zouks last time out they looked done.
Batting first Patriots batting flopped again after the false dawn show versus Tridents. Evin Lewis, who had powered 89, made just one. Chris Lynn failed again. Now would be the time to shake things up with their XI but the truth is they have precious few options. They have almost no room for manoeuvre. They could drop Lynn and give Kieran Powell a go in his favoured slot.
Possible XI Powell, Lewis, Kelly, Da Silva, Ramdin, Dunk, Tanvir, Joseph, Emrit, Khan, Jaggesar
The Tallawahs, as we have said consistently, are forever going to struggle against spin. They have a plethora of power hitters, which is great on flat and true surfaces. But there aren't any of those.
In their last outing against Tridents, Rashid Khan, Hayden Walsh and Mitchell Santner tied them in knots. That will continue to happen against teams packed with spin options. Lucky, then, that they take on Patriots who are weak in that area. But they are worried about an injury to Andre Russell, who missed the Tridents loss.
Possible XI Walton, Phillips, Blackwood, Powell, Russell, Bonner, Brathwaite, Permaul, Lamichhane, Mujeeb, Edwards
2019 SKP 176-6 (Russell 1-17) defended JT 156 (Phillips 87)
SKP 242-6 (Lewis 53) chased JT 2414 (Walton 73)
Overall SKP 6 JT 5
Bet JT chase
Patriots are [2.40] with Tallawahs [1.60]. What a shame that the match odds market is so keen on Tallawahs for one of the few games where their power should be useful.
Still, what price would we want to be on Tallawahs with that hefty toss bias? Surely no shorter than [1.85]? They still have to use their brains, which they seem to have little of.
In a brawn versus brawn encounter, Tallawahs probably have the advantage because of spin twins Lamichhane and Mujeeb. If they get up to that [1.85] mark in a chase they are worth a follow.
Tallawahs opener Glenn Phillips knows only one way to play - blast it. He has a 42% win rate including this tournament. He could be freed by a lack of spin threat. Sportsbook go 11/5.
If Patriots shake things up and pick Powell he really should open. He's not a 9/1 chance for top bat.
Are Guyana a busted flush? This week on Cricket...Only Bettor
Trade Tridents [2.40] to [1.70] bat 2nd
Bask Rashid Khan top Tridents bat 30/1 Sportsbook (0.5pts)
Back Glenn Phillips top Tallawahs bat 11/5 Sportsbook (2pts)