Caribbean Premier League Day 3 Tips: Keep hitting wrong prices

Mohammad Hafeez
Time to get with Hafeez

Ed Hawkins has three bets for the Tallawahs versus the Royals on Saturday in the CPL from Warner Park

"Hafeez has been priced at a massive 14s. He batted at No 5 and although that is a spot lower than we would like, it is the odds of a No 7"

(0.5pts) Back Mohammad Hafeez top Guyana bat 15.014/1

Barbados Royals v Jamaica Tallawahs
Saturday 29 August 19.30
TV: live on BT Sport

Royals flushed

The Royals have lost their opening two matches. But they might not be panicking. Against Trinbago, they were blown away for 122 batting first. That happens against the crack outfit in the tournament. They were also beaten by Patriots but there were positives in that loss.

For a start, they reduced Patriots to 39 for four before badly losing their grip. They also had Trinbago at 38 for four. Pace up front - namely Mohammad Amir and Oshane Thomas is their strength. But they really struggle at the death and in-play we're looking to get against their bowlers on the innings runs. Add 40 or 50 to the score in the last four.

Possible XI Philips, Charles, Holder, Hope, Azam Khan, Mayers, Perera, Walsh, Amir, Thomas

Tallawahs power

Tallwahs smashed 255 against Kings. Good for them. They are set up perfectly for huge runs with power hitters like Andre Russell, Haider Ali, Rovman Powell and Carlos Brathwaite in their ranks.

But when wickets at Warner Park start to wear, which is inevitable given this is a one-venue tournament, they are taken to struggle. The surface is still good enough for them at the moment.

Possible XI Walton, K Lewis, Brooks, Haider Ali, Powell, Russell, Brathwaite, Pretorius, Green, Permaul, Khan

Jamaica a poor price

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.186939131 This is an early candidate for one of the poorest value-bets in the tournament. Bear in mind that Trinbago are only 0.4 points shorter, a team that has dominated the competition since inception. Tallawahs have done anything but.

So we could make a case for Royals here at 2.3811/8, pinning our hopes on their pace attack knocking over the top order. They could do with Jake Lintott's availability but the game comes too soon since his Blast season ended. Using Ashley Nurse as an extra spin option could be smart.

Tops value

Jason Holder batted at No 3 when we were on him at 10/1 for top bat. Now he's 5/1. The price is still wrong for a player expected to bat in at least the top four. Glenn Philips has let us down twice but he has been boosted way beyond his actual win rate so 5/2 is good against his old team.

For Jamaica, Andre Russell will be all the rage at an inflated 11/2. That's a bet on win rates, too. We note the 9/1 about Shamarh Brooks. If Jamaica lose an early wicket Brooks will probably bat at No 3. Useful if Royals fire up front with the ball. Brooks is a 4/1 chance on win rate in the last two years.


Guyana Amazon Warriors v St Kitts & Nevis Patriots
Saturday 28 August, 15:00
TV: live on BT Sport

Guyana off to good start

Guyana should be buzzing after taking down the title holders. After five runners-up finishes they should be confident that with the squad and pitch at their disposal they should once again contest the final.
They sprang a surprise in selection, using Odean Smith as a pinch-hitter at No 3. It's smart thinking because they know they have an issue with openers Brandon King and Chandrapaul Hemraj. The latter may not last the tournament.

Imran Tahir is straight back into the action after The Hundred and is part of a three-man spin attack. That suggests the pitch is not quite the batting paradise that was expected.

Possible XI: King, Hemraj, Smith, Hetmyer, Hafeez, Shoaib Malik, Pooran, Shepherd, Naveen, Nead, Tahir

Patriots power

Patriots are likely to be all about batting muscle and they showed that in their first outing with strong middle- and lower-order performances.

Sherfane Rutherford, Dwayne Bravo showed terrific intent when they were struggling at 39 for four. Fabian Allen produced at excellent cameo at No 7. It makes them dangerous because Evin Lewis, Devon Thomas, Chris Gayle and Asif Ali won't always contribute a paltry 33 runs.

The bowling balance isn't quite right, though. They are pace heavy and in time will need to find room for spinner Jon-Russ Jaggesar.

Possible XI: Lewis, Thomas, Gayle, Asif, Rutherford, Bravo, Allen, Drakes, Cottrell, van Meekeren, Fawad

Guyana in a chase

This is likely to be a choice affair. If so, we'll side with Guyana but with the chase in their favour because of the historic toss bias.

Guyana's army of spinners could well cause Patriots problems. Their top order will want pace on the ball. Likewise their lower-order hitters.

In-play it is possible that we might get odds-against Guyana batting second with a fast start from that Patriots top order before the spinners really get into their work. Naveen-ul-Haq, the Guyana pacer, is a wicket-taker up front in the powerplay but he can be expensive.

Tops value

There are some mistakes to take advantage of for top batsman. Sportsbook go 5/1 about Devon Thomas for Patriots. He is opening the batting so should be a minimum of 7/2. There are two pure ricks for top Guyana bat, too. Smith is 7/1 which is a far too big for a guy who has just batted at No 3 and done very well. Mohammad Hafeez has been priced at a massive 14s for some reason. He batted at No 5 and although that is a spot lower than we would like, it is the odds of a No 7.

Warner Park data
Average first innings score last three years 173 (2422/13)
160+ first innings scores 11/15
Won by chaser 9/15


***
Barbados Royals v Trinbago Knight Riders
Saturday 28 August, 00:00
TV: live on BT Sport

Royals dying a death

Barbados Royals suffered defeat in their opener against the Patriots, conceding 175 and then going down by 21 runs. It was a hugely disappointing return considering they had Patriots in trouble at 39 for four.

But as discussed previously they have issues with bowling depth, notably at the death. Fabian Allen smashed 19 from seven balls at the close. A consistent wager will be to add 40 or 50 to the opposition score in-play when this lot are fielding first for the final four overs. With the bat they desperately need a platform from Glenn Philips and Johnson Charles.

Possible XI: Charles, Philipps, Hope, Holder, Mayers, Azam Khan, T Perera, Nurse, Thomas, Walsh Jnr, Amir

Trinbago shocked

Trinbago's 11-game winning sequence was ended by Guyana in the first game of the tournament. They failed to chase 143. It was a major surprise given their class, the score was 37 runs below the average and there was a heavy toss bias for the chaser.

One would expect them to improve for the run, however. There seems little wrong with the balance, although we do note that coach Brendon McCullum has not travelled and they have had a last-minute squad reshuffle.

Yasir Shah, the Pakistan spinner, could come into the XI but they would probably have to drop Tim Seifert or Isuru Udana.

Possible XI: Simmons, Narine, Munro, Seifert, Darren Bravo, Ramdin, Pollard, Udana, Hosein, Rampaul, Seales

Go big on runs

Trinbago are 1.728/11 with Barbados 2.285/4. One would have expected the holders to be around 1.654/6 with an opening-day success. So it is arguable they are value.

We expect Barbados to struggle throughout the tournament so Trinbago should be far too strong. Anything close to 1.804/5 in-play looks a wager and don't forget the advice about innings runs in-play with Trinbago batting first.

Tops value

Plenty going on for the top runscorer markets. We go in again on Philipps and Lendl Simmons at 13/5 and 10/3 for Royals and Trinbago respectively because of their excellent win rates meaning the odds are out of line. But we also note mistakes in other players. Holder batted at No 4 for Royals and is priced at 10/1. Even on two-year win rate when he's batted lower that gives us 1%. Kieron Pollard is giving us three points at 17/2 but we have to admit to being worried he's batted as low as No 7. Mind you, the last time he batted at No 7 in the CPL he smashed 71 against...Barbados.


Ed Hawkins P-L

2021: +2.55
2020: +5.91
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye column p-l

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