Afghanistan v South Africa First ODI Tips: Afghans could strangle Saffers

Wednesday 18 September 13:00
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Afghanistan v South Africa First ODI team news

Afghanistan are without their best batter in Ibrahim Zadran, which is a significant blow. Riaz Hassan, who has deputised for him previously, is expected to get another chance. Abdul Malik or Darwish Rasooli could also be in the frame for a debut. Otherwise the hosts are strong.

As ever, their strength is their bowling. Faz Farooqi and Fareed are dangerous with the new ball and then it will all be about spin with Rashid Khan, fit after a long rest, working in tandem with Mohammad Nabi and one from Gulbadin Naib and Nange Kharote .

All-rounder Azmatullah Omarzai is one to watch out for on both the tops markets and the performance quote of overs 35.5 with Sportsbook.

Possible XI: Gurbaz, Riaz Hassan, Rahmat, Hashmatullah, Omarzai, Nabi, Alikhil, Kharote, Rashid Khan, Farooqi, Fareed

This is a South Africa second XI. There is no (deep breath): Heinrich Klaasen, Rassie van der Dussen, David Miller, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Gerad Coetzee, Anrich Nortje or Kagiso Rabada.

With the bat, then, there is much pressure on Temba Bavuma, Aiden Markram and Tristan Stubbs to deliver. Lungi Ngidi is the senior pacer while Bjorn Fortuin will be expected to tie down an end with spin.

Possible XI: Hendricks, Bavuma, De Zorzi, Markram, Stubbs, Verreynne, Mulder, Fortuin, Baartman, Burger, Ngidi

Afghanistan v South Africa First ODI pitch report

There have been 11 games in the last two years. Only four first digs have busted more than 260. In both innings the runs per over of five is low. There could be a case of South Africa being overrated for runs, bearing in mind that 260 figure.

We would expect their first innings runs to be pitched at least 275.5 to go under and given their historic issues with spin, it very much has the feel of a sell. The Sharjah wickets have often been slow and low and Afghanistan have been expert on such surfaces.

Afghanistan v South Africa First ODI match prediction

This looks like a very competitive heat and it is relatively simple to make the case that Afghanistan are too big at 2.6813/8.

It's the sort of price you might expect - maybe a little skinnier - if they were going up against the cream of the South African crop. It has perhaps been influenced by the beating Afghanistan suffered in the T20 world Cup.

But this is the Afghans' best format and it's pretty much a home game. They have won 16 from 25 on this ground so they know it intimately. That knowledge could well make all the difference and it would be a major surprise if they didn't bowl at least 30 overs of spin to suffocate South Africa.

Afghanistan v South Africa First ODI player bets

Bavuma and Markram will be expected to step up but with two-year win rates of 21% and 18% the 7/24.50 from Betfair Sportsbook is no good for top bats. Stubbs, on ability, may be the value at 5/16.00.

For Afghanistan Omarzai is giving us more than eight points on win rate at 5/16.00 for top bat so we're happy to play. Gurbaz is 7/24.50 but wins at 21% in the last two years. The absence of Ibrahim makes the market pretty open. Returning to the player performance angle, Omarzai average 44 points per game so the over 35.5 quote looks cheap.

It is worth noting that, although Rashid Khan is excellent, a win rate of 16% is not big enough to tempt us at 21/10.

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