Sri Lanka v India First Test Tips: Gamble on hosts causing a shock

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Saturday 15 August, 05:30
TV: Sky Sports

Sri Lanka v India first Test team news

Sri Lanka might not hit India with their one point of difference in Test cricket; spinners on a home turner.

Prabath Jayasuriya, the slow left-armer, is the attack leader and dominates. But he is the only specialist in the squad. Auxiliary spin all-rounders in Sonal Dinusha and Ramesh Mendis could be competing for one spot.

Otherwise the hosts have picked five fast bowlers. Left-arm quick Dilshan Madushanka seems like a hopeful selection; a T20 bowler who may find the step up too much. It's unlikely, however, he gets in ahead of the reliable Vishwa Fernando, another southpaw.

Opener Niroshan Dickwella plays his 55^th Test hoping to finally record a century. His opening partner should be Lahiru Igalagamae, who managed it three. He recorded a monster 188 in West Indies in July.

Sri Lanka are reliant on their middle order trio of Kamindu Mendis, skip Dhahananjaya de Silva and Kusal Mendis to hold things together.

Possible XI: Nissanka, Igalagamage Chandimal, Kamindu, Dhananjaya, Kusal, Ramesh Mendis, Rathanayaka, Jayasuriya, Asitha, Vishwa

India are not at full-strength. They rarely are for encounters against teams other than England and Australia it seems. There's no Jasprit Bumrah, Sai Sudharsan, Washington Sundar. They have spent the preparation time fretting over the fitness of Shubman Gill. Gill is insistent he is okay despite not playing in the one warm-up. If Gill is out, Sarfaraz Khan will probably come in.

Dev Padikkal made an unbeaten 142 against a representative XI and that should mean he lands the No 3 slot. Keepers Rishabh Pant and Dhruv Jurel could both possibly play. The key men are spin all-rounders Ravi Jadeja and Manaz Suthar. They provide the balance.  

Possible XI: Jaiswal, Rahul, Paddikal, Gill, Jurel, Pant, Jadeja, Suthar, Siraj, Prasidh, Brar

Sri Lanka v India first Test pitch report 

There have been eight Tests in Galle in four years. One of those was a draw. That was the last match played there in 2025 against Bangladesh and rain had a say. Sri Lanka have won four of the eight, beating Ireland and New Zealand (two games each) and losing twice to Australia.

There is a major drop off in the average of runs per wicket by innings. In the first it stands at 55 going down to 23 in the fourth. A wicket, then, which is decent for batting in the first and second could deteriorate significantly. An in-play strategy should be based on those numbers. Spin should come to the fore in the third- and fourth-innings.

The overheads could cause an issue for batters early on. There are plenty of thunderstorms in the area although we don't expect a chunk of overs to be lost.

Sri Lanka v India first Test match predictions

India aren't quite the powerhouses they like to think they are in Tests. At least in the last two years. Their record is distinctly average, winning just eight of the 20 Tests they have played, losing ten. A 3-0 reverse to new Zealand in 2024 was probably the nadir but they've not picked up much since then with the come-from-behind draw in England probably their best effort.

They at least come up against a team who find it much harder. When they play. The hosts have managed 13 Tests in two years and lost seven of them. They were a big disappointment in West Indies, losing the series 1-0 after a hammering in game one.

Finding a way for Sri Lanka to take 20 wickets is tricky. So they have to hope the Galle surface plays ball. If we're right about this pitch taking spin in the third and fourth, the option to get with Sri Lanka with the toss onside is clear. They must bowl last.

From 5.204/1 they could well find themselves jollies when defending a score. Doubling you stake on the lay button after a back is the way to go with 5.204/1 to 2.001/1 the plan on the Betfair Exchange. India are way too short at 1.664/6.

Sri Lanka v India first Test player tips

Jayasuriya has won five of the last 11 Sri Lanka top first-innings bowler markets in home Tests. And eight of those 11 have been won by spinners. Betfair Sportsbook offer 13/53.60, which is worth a dip.

Other players of note include Dhananjaya and Kamindu at 5/16.00 and 4/15.00 respectively for top first-innings bat for the hosts. Both are win-rate bets.

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